Northern Ireland Economic Output Statistics

The economic output statistics were published today by the Northern Ireland Statistics & Research Agency (NISRA).

Work Quality statistics

Commentary

• Output in the services sector increased by 0.1 per cent in real terms over the third quarter of 2022 and increased by 0.4 per cent over the year.

• Production sector output increased by 0.5 per cent over the third quarter of 2022 and by 1.9 per cent over the year.

• Retail output in NI saw a quarterly decrease of 1.7 per cent in Quarter 3 2022 and a decrease of 5.3 per cent over the year.

• When comparing current output with the pre-Coronavirus pandemic levels seen in Quarter 4 2019, Northern Ireland production output is 5.6 per cent above its pre-pandemic level and Northern Ireland service output is 4.8 per cent above its pre-pandemic level. In contrast, Northern Ireland Retail output remains 6.2 per cent below the pre-pandemic level seen in Quarter 4 2019.

Services Sector Output

• The NI IOS increased by 0.1 per cent over the quarter and by 0.4 per cent over the year.  The UK IOS remained unchanged over the quarter and increased by 3.3 per cent over the year.

• NI services output in Quarter 3 2022 is 0.3 per cent below the series high shown in the revised Quarter 1 2022 estimate.

• NI services output is now 4.8 per cent above the pre-Coronavirus pandemic level seen in Quarter 4 2019 while UK Service output is 0.9 per cent below its pre-pandemic level. 

• The 0.1 per cent quarterly increase in NI services output was driven by increases in three of the four subsectors: the Business services and finance sector (1.6 per cent), the Other services sector (2.9 per cent) and the Transport, storage, information and communications sector (3.5 per cent). These increases were partially offset by a decrease in the Wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles; accommodation and food service sector (0.3 per cent).

• The 0.4 per cent increase seen in NI services output over the year was driven by increases in three of the four subsectors, with increases in the Business services and finance sector (4.5 per cent); the Other services sector (16.3 per cent); and the Transport, storage, information and communications sector (12.8 per cent). These increases were partially offset by a decrease in the Wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles; accommodation and food service sector (4.9 per cent). Note that in Quarter 3 2021 some restrictions on businesses due to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic were still in place.

• Looking at the longer term trend, when the most recent four quarters are compared to the previous four quarters, NI services output increased by 6.2 per cent. This was driven by all four subsectors, with increases in the Wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles; accommodation and food service sector (2.2 per cent); the Business services and finance sector (8.1 per cent); the Other services sector (25.7 per cent); and the Transport, storage, information and communications sector (12.4 per cent).  Note that the large increase on the rolling quarter measure is impacted by the notable lows in 2020.

Production Sector Output

• The NI IOP increased by 0.5 per cent over the quarter (July - September) and by 1.9 per cent over the year.

• The UK IOP reported decreases of 1.6 per cent over the quarter and 3.4 per cent over the year.

• The NI IOP is 5.6 per cent above the pre-Coronavirus pandemic level seen in Quarter 4 2019, while the UK is 3.6 per cent above its Quarter 4 2019 level.

• The quarterly increase in NI production output of 0.5 per cent was driven by an increase in Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply (5.8 per cent). This was offset by decreases in Manufacturing (0.1 per cent) and Water supply, sewerage and waste management (Inc. recycling) (4.8 per cent). There has been no change over the quarter in the Mining and quarrying sector (0.0 per cent).

• The quarterly decrease in Manufacturing output (0.1 per cent) was driven by decreases in four of the six main subsectors: Manufacture of chemical and pharmaceutical products (9.5 per cent); Food products, beverages and tobacco (4.0 per cent); Manufacture of textiles, leather and related products (3.9 per cent) and Total other manufacturing (2.5 per cent). These decreases are partially offset by increases in the Engineering and allied industries (6.8 per cent) and Basic metals and fabricated metal products (3.8 per cent) subsectors.

• Over the year the increase in Manufacturing (1.8 per cent) was driven by increases in three of the six main subsectors: Engineering and allied industries (17.1 per cent); Food products, beverages and tobacco (6.5 per cent) and Manufacture of textiles, leather and related products (3.0 per cent). These increases were partially offset by decreases in Manufacture of chemical and pharmaceutical products (31.6 per cent); Total other manufacturing (2.9 per cent) and Basic metals and fabricated metal products (2.7 per cent) subsectors.

• Looking at the longer term trend, when the most recent four quarters are compared to the previous four quarters output in the NI production sector increased by 3.6 per cent, with the UK reporting a decrease of 2.2 per cent. Note that the large increase on the rolling quarter measure is impacted by the notable lows in 2020.

Retail Sector Output

• Retail output in NI saw a quarterly decrease of 1.7 per cent in Quarter 3 2022 and a decrease of 5.3 per cent over the year.

• GB RSI output experienced a decrease of 2.0 per cent over the quarter and a decrease of 5.2 per cent over the year.

• NI RSI output in Quarter 3 2022 is 8.8 per cent below the series high seen in Quarter 3 2020 and 1.2 per cent higher than the series low (Quarter 1 2021).

• NI RSI output remains 6.2 per cent below the pre-Coronavirus pandemic level seen in Quarter 4 2019 while GB RSI output is 12.8 per cent below its Quarter 4 2019 level.

• The retail sales sector refers to SIC 47 (Retail trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles) and is a subset of the Index of Services (IOS).

Upcoming Releases

• The NI Composite Economic Index and Quarterly Construction Enquiry are scheduled for publication on 12th January 2023.
• The next Labour Market Report will be published on 17th January 2023.
• The Index of Production, Index of Services and Retail Sales Index reports for Quarter 4 2022 will be published on 16th March 2023.

Notes to editors: 

1. This report will be of interest to policy makers, public bodies, the business community, banks, economic commentators, academics and the general public with an interest in the local economy.

2. The RSI has been released as an experimental statistic, which means that it is in a testing and development phase. NISRA will continue to review the methodology and may make changes to it in the future.

3. The detailed statistical bulletins are available at the Index of Services, Index of Production and Retail Sales Index pages. Further information and tables from each of the data sources are also available at these locations.

4. To keep up to date with news from the Department you can follow us on the following social media channels:

• Twitter – @Economy_NI
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• LinkedIn – Department for the Economy NI

5. For media enquiries contact the Department for the Economy Press Office at pressoffice@economy-ni.gov.uk

6. The Executive Information Service operates an out-of-hours service for media enquiries only between 1800hrs and 0800hrs Monday to Friday and at weekends and public holidays. The duty press officer can be contacted on 028 9037 8110.

7. Feedback is welcomed and should be addressed to: Responsible statistician: Carole-Ann McKay, Economic & Labour Market Statistics Branch (ELMS), Carole-ann.mckay@nisra.gov.uk or Tel: 028 9025 5119.

8. Follow NISRA on Twitter - @NISRA

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