Northern Ireland Composite Economic Index Quarter 4 2025
Date published:
The Northern Ireland Composite Economic Index (NICEI) Quarter 4 2025 was published today by the Northern Ireland Statistics & Research Agency (NISRA).
Key points:
- Economic Activity in Northern Ireland increased by 0.2% in real terms over the quarter to Quarter 4 2025.
- Compared to Quarter 4 2024, NI output has increased by 1.6%.
- NI economic output is now 11.2% above the pre-pandemic level seen in Quarter 4 2019.
- When assessing annualised change, NI output has increased by 2.1%.
- The largest contribution to growth this quarter came from increased activity in the Construction sector (0.6 percentage points (pps)), which was offset by decreased activity in the Services sector (0.8 pps).
- The increase over the year in economic activity was driven by positive contributions from the Construction sector (0.5 pps), the Public sector (0.5 pps) the Production sector (0.4 pps) and Services sector (0.3pps).
- NI Private sector output as measured by the NICEI increased by 0.1% over the quarter and increased by 1.5% over the year. NI Public sector output as measured by the NICEI increased by 0.8% over the quarter and by 2.1% over the year.
- Although the measures are not produced on a fully equivalent basis, UK Gross Domestic Product (GDP) increased by 0.1% over the quarter and by 1.0% over the year to Quarter 4 2025. UK GDP is now 5.1% above its pre-pandemic level seen in Quarter 4 2019.
Commentary
- Economic activity in Northern Ireland reached a series high in Q2 2025, decreasing by 0.5% in Q3 2025 before rising again by 0.2% in Q4 2025. The largest positive contribution to change in the latest quarter came from increased activity in the Construction sector (0.6 pps) which was offset by decreased activity in the Services sector (0.8pps).
- Over the year economic activity increased by 1.6%, with positive contributions from the Construction sector, the Public sector, the Production sector and the Services sector.
- Looking at the longer term trend, NI economic activity increased gradually between 2013 and 2019, following the prolonged downturn post the 2007 financial crisis. However, the onset of the Coronavirus (Covid-19) pandemic brought about a sharp downturn in output, with the NICEI reaching a series low in Quarter 2 2020. Since the pandemic, economic activity in NI has recovered substantially to reach a series high in Quarter 2, 2025. Output is now 34.3% above the series low point in Quarter 2 2020.
- Economic activity in Northern Ireland has increased in 21 of the last 40 quarters.
Notes to editors:
1. The statistical bulletin, fact sheet and associated tables are available at on the NISRA website.
2. The NISRA Northern Ireland Composite Economic Index (NICEI) is a quarterly measure of the performance of the Northern Ireland (NI) economy based on available official statistics.
3. The NICEI combines existing published quarterly indices (i.e. Index of Services (IOS), Index of Production (IOP), Quarterly Construction Enquiry (QCE)), public sector employee jobs data from the Quarterly Employment Survey (QES), and unpublished agricultural output data from the Department of Agriculture, Environment and Rural Affairs (DAERA). These indices are weighted using ONS Regional Accounts Gross Value Added (GVA) data to provide a proxy measure of total economic output in the NI economy on a quarterly basis.
4. The NICEI output measures relate to the fourth quarter (October - December) of 2025. These estimates are based on surveys of businesses and estimates of change are subject to sampling error. Figures for a quarter may be revised if more complete information subsequently becomes available.
5. The NICEI back series is calculated each quarter, typically the revisions to the NICEI are reasonably minor.
6. This report will be of interest to policy makers, public bodies, the business community, banks, economic commentators, academics and the general public with an interest in the local economy.
7. Further information and tables from each of the data sources are available on the NISRA website.
8. For media enquiries contact the Department for the Economy Press Office at pressoffice@economy-ni.gov.uk
9. The Executive Information Service operates an out of hours service for media enquiries only between 1800hrs and 0800hrs Monday to Friday and at weekends and public holidays. The duty press officer can be contacted on 028 9037 8110.
10. To keep up to date with news from the Department you can follow us on the following social media channels:
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11. Feedback is welcomed and should be addressed to: Suzanne Bradley, Economic & Labour Market Statistics Branch (ELMS), Tel: 028 9052 9505.
12. Follow NISRA on X: @NISRA