The NI Composite Economic Index (NICEI) Q3 2019 was published today by the Northern Ireland Statistics & Research Agency (NISRA).
The NICEI is a quarterly measure of the performance of the NI economy based on available official statistics. The NICEI combines existing published quarterly indices (ie Index of Services (IOS), Index of Production (IOP), Quarterly Construction Enquiry (QCE)), public sector employee jobs data from the Quarterly Employment Survey (QES), and unpublished agricultural output data from the Department of Agriculture, Environment and Rural Affairs (DAERA). These indices are weighted using ONS Regional Accounts Gross Value Added (GVA) data to provide a proxy measure of total economic output in the NI economy on a quarterly basis.
NI Economic output decreased over the quarter but increased over the year
- The NICEI results indicate that NI economic activity was estimated to have decreased by 0.1 per cent in real terms over the quarter to September 2019. The index increased by 0.3 per cent over the year from Quarter 3 2018 to Quarter 3 2019.
- The decrease in the NICEI over the latest quarter (0.1 per cent) was driven by an increase in the Construction sector (a positive contribution of 0.2 percentage points (pps) and the Public sector (a positive contribution of 0.1pps). This was offset by a decrease in the Production sector (a negative contribution of 0.4 pps).
NI economic activity grew slower than UK GDP over the quarter and the year
- NI output contracted by 0.1 per cent over the quarter and increased 0.3 per cent over the year to Q3 2019, whilst UK GDP increased by 0.4 per cent over the quarter and 1.1 per cent over the year to Q3 2019.
Increase in Northern Ireland’s annualised rate of growth to Q3 2019
- When the trend in the index is considered over the last three years there is evidence that the rate of growth has picked up. Annualised average growth over the last four quarters to Quarter 3 2019 compared to the previous four quarters, increased by 1.0 per cent. This was higher than the annual growth over the previous two year period (to Quarter 3 2018) which was 0.5 per cent.
Increases in public sector growth versus negative/flat growth in the private sector over the quarter/year
- Private sector output decreased by 0.3 per cent over the quarter and remained flat (0.0 per cent) over the year to September 2019. The Public sector jobs index increased by 0.4 per cent over the quarter and by 1.4 per cent over the year.
- For the Private sector, average growth for the four quarters to Quarter 3 2019 compared to the previous four quarters increased by 1.0 per cent. Whilst the Public sector (employee jobs) index also increased by 1.0 per cent over the same period.
- NI economic activity grew slower than UK GDP over the quarter and the year. NI output decreased by 0.1 per cent over the quarter and increased 0.3 per cent over the year, compared to an increase in UK GDP of 0.4 per cent over the quarter and 1.1 per cent over the year.
- Over the last two years, growth in NI output increased by 1.0 per cent, compared to UK growth of 1.4 per cent. This was an increase on the NI growth rate compared to the two years to Q3 2018 (0.5 per cent). NI's Private sector output decreased by 0.3 per cent over the quarter, and remained static over the year (0.0 per cent).
- The NICEI is currently 3.6 per cent below the maximum value recorded in Quarter 2 2007. In Quarter 3 2019, UK GDP was estimated to have been 13.2 per cent higher than its pre-economic downturn peak of Quarter 1 2008. The latest NICEI results continue to show that the UK has had a shorter downturn and a faster recovery than NI.
Notes to editors:
- The Northern Ireland Composite Economic Index (NICEI) is a quarterly measure of the performance of the Northern Ireland (NI) economy based on available official statistics.
- The NICEI output measures relate to the third quarter (July-Sep) of 2019. These estimates are based on surveys of businesses and estimates of change are subject to sampling error. Figures for a quarter may be revised if more complete information subsequently becomes available.
- This report will be of interest to Ministers, policy makers, public bodies, the business community, banks, economic commentators, academics and the general public with an interest in the local economy.
- The detailed statistical bulletin is available at the Northern Ireland Composite Economic Index page.
- Further information and tables from each of the data sources are available at the NISRA - Economic and Labour Market Statistics website.
- For media enquiries, please contact DfE Press Office on 028 9052 9604. Outside office hours, please contact the Duty Press Officer on 028 9037 8110.
- Feedback is welcomed and should be addressed to: Responsible economist: David Leonard, Economic & Labour Market Statistics Branch (ELMS), David.firstname.lastname@example.org Tel: 028 9052 9385.
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