The labour market statistics were published today by the Northern Ireland Statistics & Research Agency.
Payrolled employees and monthly earnings recorded an increase over the month
- The number of employees receiving pay through HMRC PAYE in NI in December 2022 was 783,800, a 0.2 per cent increase over the month and a 2.0 per cent increase over the year.
- When considering employees by age, the 25-34 age group is the only group yet to return to pre-COVID levels, remaining 0.4 per cent below March 2020 numbers.
- Earnings from the HMRC PAYE indicated that NI employees had a median monthly pay of £2,021 in December 2022, an increase of £7 (0.3 per cent) over the month and an increase of £119 (6.3 per cent) over the year.
Fourth consecutive monthly increase in the claimant count
- In December 2022, the seasonally adjusted number of people on the claimant count was 36,900 (3.9 per cent of the workforce), which was an increase of 2.1 per cent from the previous month’s revised figure. The December 2022 claimant count remains higher than the pre-pandemic count in March 2020 by 23.9 per cent.
Lowest twelve-month total of confirmed redundancies in time series
- NISRA, acting on behalf of the Department for the Economy, received confirmation that 80 redundancies occurred in December 2022, taking the annual total to 730, the lowest annual total in the time series.
- 80 redundancies were proposed in December 2022. Over the year January to December 2022, 1,570 redundancies were proposed.
Statistically significant changes in Labour Force Survey (LFS) employment and economic inactivity rates
- The latest NI seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (the proportion of economically active people aged 16 and over who were unemployed) for the period September-November 2022 was estimated from the Labour Force Survey at 2.8 per cent. This was a decrease of 0.3 percentage points (pps) over the quarter and a decrease of 0.8pps over the year. Neither the quarterly nor annual changes were statistically significant.
- The proportion of people aged 16 to 64 in work (the employment rate) increased by 1.4pps over the quarter and increased by 3.3pps over the year to 71.3 per cent. The annual change was statistically significant. The total number of weekly hours worked in NI (28.5 million) increased by 6.9 per cent over the quarter and increased by 4.3 per cent over the year.
- The economic inactivity rate (the proportion of people aged 16 to 64 who were not working and not seeking or available to work) decreased by 1.2pps over the quarter and by 2.8pps over the year to 26.6 per cent. The annual change was statistically significant.
- The latest labour market release shows that payrolled employee numbers and earnings have both increased over the year. Measures of total employment (eg employment rate and hours worked), unemployment and economic inactivity continue to show improvement over the year but have not yet returned to their pre-pandemic position.
- The latest HMRC payroll data shows that payrolled employee numbers increased by 0.2 per cent over the month and are 2.0 per cent above the figure recorded in December 2021. Payrolled earnings also increased over the month, by 0.3 per cent and are 6.3 per cent above the figure recorded in December 2021.
- There were 80 redundancies confirmed to the Department in December 2022, taking the rolling twelve-month total to 730. This is the lowest twelve-month total in the time series and, following the previous two months, is the third consecutive twelve-month total under 1,000. There were 80 proposed redundancies notified to the Department in December 2022 bringing the rolling twelve-month proposed redundancies total for January-December 2022 to 1,570.
- The claimant count estimate increased over the month to December 2022 from the revised estimate for November 2022, the fourth consecutive monthly increase following a trend of decreases between March 2021 and August 2022. The claimant count rate also increased over the month, for the first time since February 2021, from 3.8 per cent to 3.9 per cent.
- Results from the Labour Force Survey (LFS) show a statistically significant increase in the employment rate to 71.3 per cent over the year to September-November 2022, as well as a statistically significant decrease in the economic inactivity rate to 26.6 per cent over the year to September-November 2022. In addition, the unemployment rate for September-November 2022 is 2.8 per cent. Despite these changes, the employment rate remains 1.2pps below the pre-pandemic level recorded in December - February 2020, whilst the unemployment rate remains 0.3pps above the pre-pandemic position and the economic inactivity rate 1.0pps above the pre-pandemic rate. The total number of hours worked in September-November 2022 was 0.6 per cent below the pre-pandemic position recorded in December - February 2020.
Notes to editors:
- The statistical report and associated tables are available at: Labour Market Report - January 2023
- The Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency wishes to thank the participating households for taking part in the Labour Force Survey.
- ‘Over the quarter’ refer to comparisons between the latest quarterly estimates for the period September-November 2022 and the quarter preceding that (i.e. June-August 2022). ‘Over the year’ refer to comparisons between the latest quarterly estimates for the period September-November 2022 and those of the corresponding quarter one year previously (i.e. September-November 2021). Changes that are found to be significant in a statistical sense (i.e. where the estimated change exceeded the variability expected from a sample survey of this size and was likely to reflect real change) will be specifically highlighted.
- Estimates relating to September-November 2022 should be compared with the estimates for June-August. This provides a more robust estimate than comparing with the estimates for August-October, as the September and October data are included within both estimates.
- The official measure of unemployment is from the Labour Force Survey. This measure of unemployment relates to people without a job who were available for work and had either looked for work in the last four weeks or were waiting to start a job. This is the International Labour Organisation definition. Labour Force Survey estimates are subject to sampling error. This means that the exact figure is likely to be contained in a range surrounding the estimate quoted. For example, the unemployment rate is likely to fall within 0.6pps of the quoted estimate (i.e. between 2.1 per cent and 3.4 per cent).
- The claimant count is an administrative data source derived from Jobs and Benefits Offices systems, which records the number of people claiming unemployment-related benefits. In March 2018 the NI claimant count measure changed from one based solely on Jobseekers Allowance (JSA) to an experimental measure based on JSA claimants and out-of-work Universal Credit (UC) claimants who were claiming principally for the reason of being unemployed. Those claiming unemployment-related benefits (either UC or JSA) may be wholly unemployed and seeking work, or may be employed but with low income and/or low hours, that make them eligible for unemployment-related benefit support. Under UC a broader span of claimants became eligible for unemployment-related benefit than under the previous benefit regime.
- Redundancies are provided by companies under the Employment Rights (Northern Ireland) Order 1996 (Amended 8 October 2006) whereby they are legally required to notify the Department of impending redundancies of 20 or more employees. Companies who propose fewer than 20 redundancies are not required to notify the Department, therefore the figures provided are likely to be an underestimate of total job losses, however, it is not possible to quantify the extent of the shortfall. All other things being equal we would expect more redundancies in sectors dominated by large businesses as they are the businesses that meet the 20 or more collective redundancy criteria.
- To prevent the potential identification of individual businesses, redundancy totals relating to fewer than 3 businesses are not disclosed. The Statistical Disclosure Control Policy is available at: Redundancies background information. Where the number of businesses does not meet the threshold for release (as detailed in the Statistical Disclosure Control Policy), individual monthly totals are not published.
- HMRC’s Pay As You Earn (PAYE) Real Time Information (RTI) system is an administrative data source. The PAYE RTI system is the system employers use to take Income Tax and National Insurance contributions before they pay wages to employees. These data relate to employees paid by employers only, and do not include self-employment income.
- Estimates of the number of paid employees and employee earnings from PAYE are classed as experimental statistics as they are still in their development phase. As a result, the data are subject to revisions. Early estimates (flash estimates) for December 2022 are based on around 85 per cent of information and will be subject to revision in the next month’s release when between 98 per cent and 99 per cent of data will be available (main estimates). The size of revisions to main and flash estimates are similar for employees, while revisions to earnings flash estimates are typically larger than main estimate revisions. The HMRC PAYE covers the whole population rather than a sample of employees or companies. Data are based on where employees live and not the location of their place of work within the UK. Data are seasonally adjusted but not adjusted for inflation.
- The content and format of the Labour Market Report (LMR) and monthly tables changed in September 2022 to make them more user friendly and interactive, enhancing accessibility, and increasing automation in their production. As the tables have changed, a mapping document has been created showing the relationship between old and new tables. In addition, the LMR, supplementary documents and data tables are now all available on one webpage with links added to individual data source pages directing users to the most recent data.
- The Labour Market Report will be of interest to policy makers, public bodies, the business community, banks, economic commentators, academics, and the general public with an interest in the local economy.
- The next Labour Market Report will be published on the NISRA website on Tuesday 14th February 2023.
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