Northern Ireland Composite Economic Index Quarter 1 2025

Date published: 26 June 2025

Key points:

• In the first quarter of 2025, the NICEI indicates that economic output decreased by 0.6% over the quarter.
• Output increased by 1.6% over the year and by 2.7% on a rolling four quarters basis to March 2025.
• NI economic output is now 10.0% above the pre-pandemic level seen in Quarter 4 2019.
• The decrease in the NICEI of 0.6% over the latest quarter was driven by negative contributions in activity in the Construction sector (0.5 percentage points (pps)) and the Production sector (0.2 pps).
• The increase over the year in economic activity was driven by positive contributions from all sectors.
• Growth in NI output since the pandemic (10.0%) has largely been driven by the Services sector (5.9pps) which comprises 52% of GVA.
• Although the measures are not produced on a fully equivalent basis, comparisons with the UK show that NI experienced a decrease in economic activity over the latest quarter (0.6%) while activity in the UK increased (0.7%). NI had stronger growth over the year (1.6% vs 1.3%) and over the rolling annual average period (2.7% vs 1.3%). Comparing against the pre-pandemic quarter (Q4 2019) economic activity in NI has shown stronger growth than the UK (10.0% vs 4.1%).
• NI’s Private sector output as measured by the NICEI decreased by 0.9% over the quarter. Output increased by 1.9% over the year and by 3.3% on a rolling four quarter basis. Output is now 10.5% above pre-pandemic levels recorded in Quarter 4 2019.
• The NICEI Public Sector (employee jobs) index increased by 0.3% over the quarter, by 0.7% over the year and by 0.7% on a rolling four quarter basis. The index is now 7.9% above pre-pandemic levels.

Commentary

• The NICEI indicates economic activity in Northern Ireland decreased by 0.6% during Quarter 1 2025.
• The decreased economic activity during Quarter 1 2025 was driven by negative contributions from the Construction sector (0.5 pps) and the Production sector (0.2 pps).
• Over the year, economic activity increased by 1.6%, with positive contributions from all sectors.
• Looking at the longer term trend, NI economic activity increased gradually from years 2013-2019, following the prolonged downturn post the 2007 financial crisis. However, the onset of the pandemic brought about a sharp downturn in output with the NICEI reaching a series low in Quarter 2 2020. Since the pandemic, economic activity in NI has recovered substantially to reach a series high in Quarter 4 2024. NI economic output is now 10.0% higher than the pre-pandemic level seen in Quarter 4 2019. The Services sector (which accounts for 52% of NI GVA) has had a sizeable positive contribution to this growth showing a strong recovery post pandemic.
• Economic activity in Northern Ireland has increased in 24 of the last 40 quarters.