Northern Ireland Composite Economic Index Quarter 1 2024

Date published: 27 June 2024

Key points:

• In the first quarter of 2024, the NICEI indicates that economic output increased by 1.4% over the quarter and by 1.1% over the year. Output increased by 1.4% on a rolling four quarters basis to March 2024.
• NI economic output is now 7.6% above the pre-pandemic level seen in Quarter 4 2019.
• The largest upward contribution to change this quarter came from increased activity in the Services sector 1.0 percentage points (pps). This positive contribution was partially offset by a decrease in the Production sector (0.2 pps).
• Although the measures are not produced on a fully equivalent basis, comparisons with the UK show NI had stronger growth over the quarter (1.4% vs 0.6%) and over the year (1.1% vs 0.2%). NI also had larger growth in activity over the rolling annual average period (1.4% vs 0.1%). Comparing against the pre-pandemic quarter (Quarter 4 2019) economic activity in NI has shown stronger growth than the UK (7.6% vs 1.7%).
• NI’s Private sector output as measured by the NICEI increased by 1.7% over the quarter and by 1.2% over the year. Private sector output increased by 1.5% on a rolling four quarter basis and by 7.9% when compared to pre- pandemic levels recorded in Quarter 4 2019.
• The NICEI Public Sector (employee jobs) index increased by 0.2% over the quarter, and by 0.6% over the year, by 1.1% on a rolling four quarter basis and by 6.2% compared to pre-pandemic levels.

Commentary

• The NICEI indicates economic activity in Northern Ireland increased by 1.4% during Quarter 1 2024. NI economic output returned to positive growth during Quarter 1 2024.
• The increased economic activity during Quarter 1 2024 was driven by positive contributions from the Services sector (1.0 pps), the Construction sector (0.4 pps) and the Agriculture sector (0.1 pps) over the quarter. The increase in these sectors was partially offset by decreased activity in the Production sector (0.2 pps).
• NI economic output is now 7.6% higher than the pre-pandemic level seen in Quarter 4 2019. The Services sector (which accounts for 52% of NI GVA) has had a sizeable positive contribution to this growth (5.1 pps) showing a strong recovery post pandemic. There were also further positive contributions from the Public sector (1.4 pps), the Construction sector (1.0 pps) and the Agriculture sector (0.2 pps).