Economic Output Statistics - Q4 2025

Date published: 19 March 2026

Commentary

• Output in the services sector decreased by 1.5% over the fourth quarter of 2025 and increased by 0.6% over the year.
• Retail output in NI saw a quarterly decrease of 2.6% in Quarter 4 2025 and an increase of 2.2% over the year.
• Production sector output saw an increase of 1.3% over the fourth quarter of 2025 and increased by 2.7% over the year.
• When comparing current output with the pre-Coronavirus pandemic levels seen in Quarter 4 2019, NI service output is 10.3% above its pre-pandemic level, NI production output is 7.6% above its pre-pandemic level, and NI retail output is 1.3% above its pre-pandemic level.

Services Sector Output

• The NI Index of Services (IOS) decreased by 1.5% over the fourth quarter of 2025 (October - December) and increased by 0.6% over the year. UK output was unchanged over the quarter and increased by 1.0% over the year, remaining at a UK series high.
• When the most recent four quarters are compared to the previous four quarters, the NI services sector increased by 2.2% while the UK services sector increased by 1.5%.
• NI services output is now 10.3% above the pre-Coronavirus pandemic level seen in Quarter 4 2019 while UK services output is 7.4% above its Quarter 4 2019 level.
• The NI IOS output is 41.3% higher than the series low point (Quarter 2 2020).
• The 1.5% quarterly decrease in NI services output reflected decreases in the Business services and finance sector of 5.1%, the Wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles; accommodation and food service sector of 0.6%, and the Transport, storage, information and communications sector of 3.4%. This was offset by an increase in the Other services sector of 5.5%.
• The 0.6% increase seen in NI services output over the year was driven by increases in the Wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles; accommodation and food service sector of 1.6%, the Other services sector of 1.0%, and the Transport, storage, information and communications sector of 1.9%. This was offset by a decrease in the Business services and finance sector of 3.5%.

Retail Sector Output

• The retail sales sector refers to SIC 47 (Retail trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles) and is a subset of the Index of Services (IOS).
• The NI Retail Sales Index (RSI) saw a decrease of 2.6% in Quarter 4 2025 and an increase of 2.2% over the year. GB RSI output saw a decrease of 0.5% in the quarter and an increase of 1.7% over the year.
• NI RSI output is now 1.3% above the pre-Coronavirus pandemic level seen in Quarter 4 2019 while GB RSI output remains 2.1% below its Quarter 4 2019 level.
• When the most recent four quarters are compared to the previous four quarters, the NI retail sector increased by 6.0% while the GB retail sector increased by 1.3%.

Production Sector Output

• The NI IOP increased by 1.3% over the quarter (October - December) and increased by 2.7% over the year. The UK IOP increased by 1.2% over the quarter and increased by 1.0% over the year.
• When the most recent four quarters are compared to the previous four quarters, the NI production sector increased by 2.6% while the UK production sector increased by 0.3%.
• The NI IOP is 7.6% above the pre-Coronavirus pandemic level seen in Quarter 4 2019, while the UK IOP remains 6.4% below its Quarter 4 2019 level.
• Over the quarter, the increase in NI production output was driven by a rise in one main sector - Manufacturing (2.8%). This was offset by a fall in Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply (0.4%), Water supply, sewerage and waste management (inc. recycling) (1.9%) and Mining and quarrying (16.0%).
• Over the year the increase in NI production output was driven by a rise in two main sectors – Manufacturing (3.8%) and Water supply, sewerage and waste management (inc. recycling) (1.0%). This was offset by a fall in Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply (2.2%) and Mining and quarrying (1.4%).

Upcoming Releases

• The Labour Market Report was published this morning, 19 March 2026.
• The NI Composite Economic Index and Quarterly Construction Enquiry are scheduled for publication on 26 March 2026.
• The Index of Production and Index of Services reports for Quarter 1 2026 will be published on 18 June 2026.