Economic Output Statistics

Date published: 13 June 2019

Commentary

• The services sector has recorded annual growth every quarter since Quarter 4 2014. The production sector meanwhile has shown annual growth in each of the last four quarters.
• Output in the services sector decreased in real terms (by 0.4 per cent) over the first quarter of 2019 from its highest point in the last 10 years. Production sector output increased in real terms (by 1.7 per cent over the quarter) to its highest point since Q1 2017.

Services sector output

• Output in the services sector decreased in real terms (by 0.4 per cent) over the first quarter of 2019 (January to March), from its highest point in the last 10 years. NI output in this sector is 2.8 per cent lower than the high point since the series began (Q4 2006). Growth over the year (0.7 per cent) in the sector was below UK growth of 2.0 per cent over the equivalent period (Q1 2018 to Q1 2019).
• The quarterly fall in the services sector was driven by decreases in the Wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles; Accommodation and food service sector (by 1.0 per cent) and the Transport, storage, information and communication sector (by 2.2 per cent). This decrease was partially offset by increases in the Business services and finance sector (by 2.5 per cent) and in the Other services sector (by 1.2 per cent). This sector includes other activities not covered elsewhere - education, health & social work, arts, entertainment and recreation and other services. Annual growth in the services sector was driven by growth in the Business services and finance sector (by 3.1 per cent), the Other services sector (by 2.8 per cent) and the Transport, storage, information and communication sector (by 0.1 per cent). This increase was partially offset by a decrease in the Wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles; Accommodation and food service sector (by 0.1 p[er cent).
• In the longer term, when the most recent four quarters are compared to the previous four quarters, both the NI and UK services sectors reported annualised growth (of 1.9 per cent) to Quarter 1 2019.

Production sector output

• Production output in NI increased over the first quarter (by 1.7 per cent) and over the year (by 2.3 per cent). The UK production sector also reported increases in output over the quarter (by 1.4 per cent) and over the year (by 0.6 per cent).
• The change in the IOP is caused by quarterly increases in the Manufacturing sector (1.9 per cent); the Water Supply, Sewerage and Waste Management (including Recycling) sector (2.2 per cent), and the Mining and Quarrying Sector (0.1 per cent). There was a decrease in the Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply sector (2.2 per cent). The increase in the Manufacturing sector itself contained quarterly subsector rises in the indices for Manufacture of chemical and pharmaceutical products (26.3 per cent); Manufacture of Basic and Fabricated Metal products (17.6 per cent); Manufacture of textiles, wearing apparel and leather products (22.0 per cent) and Food products, beverages and tobacco (1.2 per cent).
• Looking at the longer term trend, when the most recent four quarters are compared to the previous four quarters, output in the NI production sector grew by 2.7 per cent, with the whole of the UK reporting growth of 0.5 per cent.

Upcoming releases

• NISRA is due to publish a further six reports this month. These are the Labour Force Survey Annual
• Report (18 June), Broad Economy Sales and Exports Statistics (19th June), NI results from the UK
• Innovation Survey (19 June), Facts and Figures from the IDBR (25th June), the Business Register and Employment Survey (27 June) and the Annual Business Inquiry (27 June).
• The next Labour Market Report will be published on 16 July.
• The NI Composite Economic Index and Quarterly Construction Enquiry are scheduled for publication on 18 July.
• The Index of Production and Index of Services reports for quarter 2 2019 will be published on 12 September.