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  • Implications of US Trade Policy Changes on Northern Ireland’s Economy and Trade

    Topics:
    • Economic policy, 
    • Statistics and economic research, 
    • Economic strategy, 
    • Public sector innovation

    Date published: 21 July 2026

    The Department for the Economy commissioned analysis from the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) and the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR), to assess the potential impact of recent US tariff changes on Northern Ireland's economy. ESRI also produced a complementary paper examining the implications of US trade policy changes for Northern Ireland’s trade performance. Together, these studies help policymakers and businesses understand Northern Ireland’s exposure to changing global trading conditions and potential trade-related risks.

    The Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) and the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) have published the paper The Macroeconomic Impact of Tariffs on Northern Ireland. The research examines the potential macroeconomic effects of US tariffs on Northern Ireland, including impacts on economic growth, trade, employment, inflation and consumer spending. It assesses a range of tariff scenarios and compares the estimated impacts on Northern Ireland with those for the UK, Ireland and the EU.  The full report can be accessed using the link below.  A summary of the key findings can also be accessed in the accompanying summary document below. 

    The Macroeconomic Impact of Tariffs on Northern Ireland

    The Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) has produced the paper Economic Effects of US Trade Policy Changes on Northern Ireland’s Trade. The research examines the potential impact of recent US trade policy changes on Northern Ireland’s trade, including sector-specific effects reflecting differences in how industries respond to tariffs. The full report can be accessed using the link below.  A summary of the key findings can also be accessed in the accompanying summary document below.

    Economic Effects of the US Trade Policy Changes 

     

    Documents

    • The Macroeconomic Impact of Tariffs on Northern Ireland - SummaryAdobe PDF (174.13 KB)
    • Economic Effects of the US Trade Policy Changes on Northern Ireland's Trade - SummaryAdobe PDF (182.22 KB)

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