Direct economic impact of Northern Ireland (NI) Protocol on the NI economy

Date published: 14 December 2020

This paper examines the direct long term impact on Northern Ireland’s (NI)economic performance as a result of the Protocol and the new trading relationship between the UK and EU. This analysis represents an update to work previously undertaken by the Fraser of Allander Institute that examined the Direct Trade Impacts of EU Exit Scenarios on Northern Ireland. Note that this analysis does not take account of the specific provisions outlined in the UK Government’s recently published Command Paper on the Northern Ireland Protocol and as such should be considered within that context.


Economic modelling carried out by the Department estimates there could be between 10,000 and 23,000 fewer jobs here depending on the nature of the future trading relationship established between the UK and the EU. There are significant risks to the NI economy related to the importation of agri-food products from GB. The report also demonstrates that the Protocol could impact on NI’s competitiveness and ability to export to both the GB and EU markets.

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