The Direct Economic Impact of the New USA Tariff Regime on the Local Economy
Date published:
This research paper investigates the macroeconomic implications of the United States' recently introduced tariff policy on exports from the North of Ireland.
This research paper investigates the macroeconomic implications of the United States' recently introduced tariff policy on exports from the North of Ireland.
Specifically, it assesses the shift in trade dynamics from before the U.S. government's "Liberation Day" announcement on 2 April 2025, through to the subsequent unveiling of the UK–US Economic Prosperity Deal on 8 May 2025.
The analysis presented is underpinned by the Department for the Economy’s Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model that provides a detailed assessment of the potential long-term economic impacts of the new tariff regime on the local economy.
Initial findings suggest that the revised tariff structure could lead to a sustained reduction in GDP of at least 0.15%. The research also identifies the machinery and pharmaceutical sectors as being particularly vulnerable to the effects of these new trade barriers.