NI Skills Barometer 2023-2033

The article provides a useful overall summary of the Skills Barometer 2023-2033, highlighting topics such as:

• Job growth in Northern Ireland
• High-growth sectors
• In-demand qualifications
• Skills gaps in our economy 

Introduction

The newest edition of the NI Skills Barometer has been developed by the Ulster University Economic Policy Centre (UUEPC) and covers the period 2023-2033. This is the fifth iteration of this publication. 

In summary, the NI Skills Barometer is an economic model which forecasts future skills needs and skills gaps facing the NI economy in a baseline and high-growth scenario. The high growth scenario aligns well with the DfE Minister’s Economic Vision of Good Jobs, Higher Productivity, Decarbonisation and Regional Balance and the report focuses primarily on this scenario.

Labour Market

The report highlighted various points under the high growth scenario, including job growth, in-demand sectors and in-demand qualifications. 

The NI Skills Barometer forecasts there to be an increase in jobs to almost one million by 2033. The average annual increase in jobs is set to be 7,600 from 2023 to 2033. Even though this growth is ambitious, it is representative of a slower rate of job growth than the Northern Ireland labour market has seen in recent years, partly attributed to the impact of capacity restraints on the labour market’s potential growth. 

In conjunction with job growth, the employment rate is also projected to rise, from 70% to 76%, which would see the highest rate in Northern Ireland by a significant margin.

Sectors and Occupations

The NI Skills Barometer can also be broken down by sector. Under the high growth scenario, the top three sectors with the highest rates of growth are: electricity and gas (6.2%); ICT (3.1%); and professional services (1.8%), respectively.

These sectors closely align with the Department for the Economy’s priority sectors, with the growth in electricity and gas closely linked with the increased demand for workers to help reach net zero targets.

There is an established link between sector growth and qualifications in the NI Skills Barometer – sectors associated with higher qualification requirements have higher projected growth rates. These high value-added sectors will generate higher wages and high skilled employment, in turn, driving the demand for tertiary level qualifiers.

When looking at occupations, the NI Skills Barometer forecasts that the detailed occupation with the largest absolute growth will be care workers and home carers, which is set to grow by 4,100 over the decade 2023-2033. This is indicative of the increase in demand for health and care workers, as the healthcare sector is under increasing pressure from an under-supply of skilled workers.

Qualifications and Skills

As well as the established link between high growth sectors and high qualifications, the NI Skills Barometer highlights other skills gaps in the NI economy. The largest under-supply of skills lies within mid-tier skills (RQF level 3-5) and sees a low provision of technical and professional qualifications at this level. Specifically, of qualifiers, 12% of those entering the labour market are qualified at RQF level 4-5, compared to 41% at degree level and above.

The qualification pool has widened over the past decade – this is due to structural shifts in labour demand, generational effect, and shifts in labour supply from the education system. Despite this increase, there remains a stark gap in qualifications between those in work and those out of work, with those out of work having a lower qualification profile. Combined with the increased demand for mid and high-level qualifications, this limits the ability of those out of work e.g. the economically inactive, to fill shortages in the labour market.

There remains reduced labour market demand for those with lower-level skills; however, there is a requirement for the subject mix of those with mid-level skills and degree level skills to meet the needs of the economy, particularly in STEAM (Science, Technology, Engineering, Arts and Mathematics), Business and Management. 

The below graphs highlight the forecasted annual average labour market supply gap by qualification level.

Figure 1: Annual average (im)balance by qualification (RQF), NI, 2023-2033

Note: The supply gaps in the above chart have been calculated based on ‘net supply’. This takes account of migration patterns amongst qualifiers at NI HEIs and NI domiciled qualifiers qualifying from GB HEIs, in addition to labour force participation.

Note: For some qualifiers, it may be the case that they require additional employability skills before accessing employment in a job commensurate to their level of qualification.