Young People Inequalities in the Northern Ireland skills system - accessible text version

This is an accessible text version of the presentation slides at: Young People Inequalities in the Northern Ireland skills system

Context

One in 10 are aged 16-24

  • 200,606 young people aged 16-24 in NI
  • 11% of the whole NI population

Source: NISRA Population Estimates, 2021

The number of young people is expected to peak in almost 10 years time

  • 16-24 population projected to rise by c27,000 (13%) between 2023 and 2032 before going into long-term decline

Source: NISRA Population Projections, 2021

Young people in education are spread across School, FE and HE

  • c28,900 pupils enrolled in sixth form across grammar (c17,100) and non-grammar schools (c11,900) (2022/23).
  • C37,100 students aged 24 and under enrolled in at Further Education colleges: 27,600 aged 19 and under; 9,500 20-24 year olds (2021/22).
  • C39,500 students up to age 24 in NI HEIs: 20,700 aged under 21; 18,800 21-24 year olds (2020/21).
  • Approximately 105,500 students aged 24 or under at School at FE and HE

Source: Department of Education, Department for the Economy, Higher Education Statistics Agency

Note: Further Education students include regulated and non-regulated enrolments

Prince’s Trust Class of Covid Report 2022 (UK 16-25 year olds)

  • 51% feel their aspirations for the future are lower due to global events since 2020.
  • 33% no longer think they will achieve their career goals; 36% think their job prospects will never recover from Covid.

City & Guilds published Youth Misspent: Uncovering the harsh realities for Britain’s young people in today’s job market – barriers facing young working age people today, (UK 18–24 year-olds)

  • 13% of respondents are currently unemployed and a further 3% are economically inactive.
  • 9% of those who are unemployed say they never intend to start working.
  • 43% don’t believe that their education has equipped them with the skills they need to get the job they want. 
  • 64% say it’s not easy to get a good job these days and 29% say they have struggled to get interviews; 19% say there aren’t the jobs available in their local area.

Source: Prince’s Trust, City & Guilds

Labour Market

Majority of young people are employed or students

  • There are 112,000 economically active young people in NI. 
  • 106,000 of them are employed
  • 7,000 of them are unemployed
  • There are 85,000 economically inactive young people in NI – 87% are students
  • There are 17,000 NEET young people in NI which is a rate of 8.8%

(NEET = unemployed + inactive not in education/training)

Source: NISRA Labour Force Survey, refers to Sept to Nov 2022

* Refers to Q3 2022 – Nomisweb, ONS **Refers to Q3 2022, NISRA LFS

Employment rate is relatively low for young people because of high numbers of students but even lower for those disabled

  • 50% Employment rate for non-disabled 16-24 year olds
  • 33% Employment rate for disabled 16-24 year olds (UK rate 39.7%)
  • 91% Employment rate for non-disabled 25-49 year olds
  • 42% Employment rate for disabled 25-49 year olds
  • 83% Employment rate for non-disabled 50-64 year olds
  • 30% Employment rate for disabled 50-64 year olds

Source: UUEPC LMI Portal; NISRA LFS

For young that work, wages are lower. For those available to work, unemployment is higher

  • Unemployment rate for 16-24 (5.8%) more than double that of 16-64 year olds (2.5%).
  • Gross hourly pay more than one third lower in 18-21 age group (£8.36) and 7% lower in 22-29 year olds (£11.91) compared with employees of all ages (£12.84).
  • For 16-24 year olds males account for 65% of full-time employees and hourly earnings are 2% higher; and
  • Females make up 61% of part-time employees, but hourly earnings are 1% lower than male counterparts.

Source: NISRA Labour Force Survey; NISRA ASHE.

NEET is relatively low now but usually stubbornly high

  • An estimated 17,000 young people (aged 16 to 24) in NI are not in education, employment or training (NEET), equating to 8.8%.
  • NEET rate was highest in Q1 2015 at 18.0%, or 39,000, it is now less than half of that.
  • c13,000 less males NEET compared with same period in 2014 (July-Sept), c11,000 fewer females NEET than peak in 2013 (July-Sept).
  • The proportion of young people who were NEET in the UK was 11.9%.

Source: NISRA Labour Force Survey

Lower rates of entrepreneurship among young people in Northern Ireland

  • 10% of 18-24 year olds in NI involved in early-stage entrepreneurship activity in 2021, the lowest amongst UK regions and a decrease on previous year
  • It is the second highest rate amongst age groups examined in NI.
  • This age group has highest rates in Wales and Scotland.

Source: Global Entrepreneurship Monitor

School Leavers

Almost half of school leavers head to HEIs…

In 2020/21 there were 21,610 School leavers in Northern Ireland which makes up 1% of the population.

  • 48% went to Higher Education
  • 27% went to Further Education
  • 11% got a job and became employed
  • 11% went to training
  • 4% went to unemployment or unknown
  • Almost half of school leavers head to Higher Education Institutions (HEIs)

Source: Department of Education, NISRA

But there are inequalities in school leavers who go to HEIs..

  • 75.9% of Grammar school leavers attend HEIs whereas only 25.7% of non-grammar school leavers will attend HEIs
  • 44.8% of Protestants and 50.6% of Catholics will attend HEIs
  • 47.7% of White people and 52.3% of minorities will attend HEIs
  • 27.8%  who receive free school meals (FSM) and 54.8% non-FSM will attend HEIs
  • Large inequalities between grammar and non-grammar; and FSM and non-FSM

Source: Department of Education, NISRA

With poor achievements amongst these cohorts…

  • 23% of boys achieved 3+ A levels from non-grammar schools
  • 45% of girls achieved 3+ A levels from non-grammar schools
  • 71% of boys achieved 3+ A levels from grammar schools
  • 85% of girls achieved 3+ A levels from grammar schools
  • Vast majority (85%) of grammar girls achieve 3+ A Levels A* to C whilst in non-grammar boys a minority achieve these qualifications (23%).

Source: School Leavers Statistics, 2020/21, Department for Education

Underachievement for those entitled to FSM

  • 23% of boys who received free school meals achieved 3+ A levels (A*-C)
  • 44% of girls who received free school meals achieved 3+ A levels (A*-C)
  • 50% of boys who did not receive free school meals received 3+ A levels (A*-C)
  • 70% of girls who did not receive free school meals received 3+ A levels (A*-C)
  • Those entitled to Free School Meals don’t perform as well at achieving 3+ A-Levels A* to C; boys less favourably

Source: School Leavers Statistics, 2020/21, Department for Education

Special Educational Needs (SEN) School Leavers have higher proportion achieving no formal qualifications

  • 83.6% of school leavers who did not have special educational needs achieved getting at least 5 GCSEs including Maths and English
  • 46.2% of school leavers with special educational needs between stages 1-2 achieved getting at least 5 GCSE’s including Maths and English
  • 36.1% of school leavers who had special educational needs at Stage 3 achieved least 5 GCSEs including Maths and English
  • 0.4% of school leavers with no special educational needs left school with no qualifications
  • 1.9% of school leavers with special educational needs stage between 1-2 left school with no qualifications
  • 2.7% of school leavers with special educational needs stage 3 left school with no qualifications
  • Fewer than half of school leavers with a SEN Statement achieve 5 GCSE’s including English and Maths

And are much less likely to go to Higher Education

Higher Education

  • 52.7% of school leavers with no SEN go into higher education
  • 21.3% of school leavers with stages 1-2 SEN go into higher education
  • 16% of school leavers with stages 3 SEN go into higher education

Further Education

  • 24.7% of school leavers with no SEN go into further education
  • 39.4% of school leavers with stages 1-2 SEN go into further education
  • 42.2% of school leavers with stages 3 SEN go into further education

Training

  • 8.8% of school leavers with no SEN go into training
  • 19.2% of school leavers stages 1-2 SEN to go into training
  • 23.4% of school leavers with stages 3 SEN go into training

Employment

  • 10.2% of school leavers with no SEN go into employment
  • 13.9% of school leavers with stages 1-2 SEN go into employment
  • 10.4% of school leavers with stages 1-2 SEN go into employment

Unemployment

  • 1.7% of school leavers with no SEN are unemployed.
  • 3.6% of school leavers with stages 1-2 SEN are unemployed
  • 4.5% of school leavers with stages 3 SEN are be unemployed

Destinations unknown

  • 1.8% of school leavers with no SEN are unknown of their whereabouts
  • 2.7% of school leavers with stages 1-2 SEN are unknown of their whereabouts
  • 3.5% of school leavers with stages 3 SEN are unknown of their whereabouts

With SEN school leavers less likely to go into Higher Education and more likely to go into Further Education, training, employment, or unemployment.

Source: School Leavers Statistics, 2020/21, Department for Education

Further Education and Training

Falling number of young students in further education (FE)

  • A total of c32,500 students aged 24 and under enrolled in FE regulated courses in 2021/22, c7,900 fewer than in 2017/18, representing a 19% decrease.
  • The largest decline in students has been in the 19 and under category: a 23% decrease from 2017/18 to 2021/22; and a fall of 5% since 2020/21. The proportion of students aged 19 and under has decreased from 49.8% to 46.5% since last year.
  • In the 20-24 age category there has been a 9% fall in students from 2017/18, from c9,500 to c8,600.

Source: Department for the Economy, FE Sector Activity

Young females much less likely to study narrow STEM (science, technology, engineering, maths) in FE

  • Almost half of young men (49.0%) choose narrow STEM subjects compared with one-in-five young females at FE (19.6%) (2017/18-2021/22).

Source: Department for the Economy, FE Sector Activity

Low concentration of young students in least deprived quintile

  • 5,800 are in the quintile 1 as the most deprived
  • 7,049 are in the quintile 2 as the 2nd most deprived
  • 6,675 are in the quintile 3 as the 3rd most deprived
  • 5,731 are in the quintile 4 as the 4th most deprived
  • 3,868 are in the quintile 5 as the least deprived
  • Only 13.3% of young students enrolled in regulated courses are from the least deprived quintile

Source: Department for the Economy, FE Sector Activity

More females enrolled in regulated courses in FE have a recorded disability

  • 17% of young females and 14% of young males enrolled in regulated FE course recorded having a disability
  • Gap has widened from 0.3pps to 2.9pps from 2018/19 to 2021/22.

Source: Department for the Economy, FE Activity bulletin

Apprenticeships among the 16-19 cohort is vastly growing, particularly among males

In total almost 45,000 young people started an Apprenticeship since 2013/14

73% increase in AppsNI starts aged 16 to 19:

  • 96% growth among males
  • 12% growth in female starts

The 20-24 age group has seen a 20% drop in AppsNI starts:

  • 36% decline among females
  • 3% decline among males

Source: ApprenticeshipsNI Statistical Bulletin August 2013 to July 2022, Department for the Economy

About one in five apprenticeships has a disability

19% of apprenticeships have a disability

16-19 – Since 2013/14:

  • 23% decline in AppsNI starts with a disability.
  • 52% decline among females,
  • 11% decline among males

20-24

  • 26% decline in AppsNI starts with a disability:
  • 39% decline among females,    
  • 15% decline among males

Source: ApprenticeshipsNI Statistical Bulletin August 2013 to July 2022, Department for the Economy

Female Apprenticeships mainly study frameworks which generate lower earners in long run

Males tend to study more STEM related framework areas, that would typically generate ‘well-paid’ jobs

Male:

  • Electrotechnical - 21%
  • Construction – 11%
  • Food Manufacture – 11%
  • Engineering – 11%
  • Mechanical Engineering Services – 9%
  • Vehicle maintenance and repair – 7%
  • Other – 30%

Females tend to study Care and Service Industry related frameworks which tend to generate ‘lower’ paid jobs

Female:

  • Food manufacture – 19%
  • Health and social care – 14%
  • Hospitality – 14%
  • Child care learning and development – 12%
  • Hairdressing – 8%
  • Retail – 4%
  • Other – 29%

Source: ApprenticeshipsNI Statistical Bulletin August 2013 to July 2022, Department for the Economy

Programme for underachievers, yet substantial proportion still not achieving

Training for Success (TfS) Skills for your life:

  • 61% male gained a qualification
  • 55% female gained a qualification
  • 2% male progressed
  • 2% female progressed
  • 39% male left with no qualifications
  • 45% female left with no qualifications

Training for Success (TfS) Skills for work:

  • 70% male gained a qualification
  • 76% female gained a qualification
  • 14% male progressed
  • 3% female progressed
  • 26% male left with no qualifications
  • 24% female left with no qualifications
  • Many left TfS without progressing or gaining any qualification

Source: Training for Success Statistical Bulletin May 2013 to July 2022, Department for the Economy

Higher Education

Increasing enrolments in HE in young people

  • c3,600 more students aged 24 and under enrolled in NI HEIs in 2020/21 than in 2019/20 (+10%).
  • From 2016/17 to 2020/21 there were an additional c3,500 students aged 21-24 in HE, a 23% increase. Since the last academic year there has been an increase of c2,000, a 12% increase.
  • The most recent figures show an annual increase of 8% in the under 21s, equating to c1,600 more students in HE.
  • More than double the proportion of males enrolled in narrow STEM subjects in NI HEIs, also higher in broad STEM.

Broad STEM subjects (proportion)

  • 57% male
  • 48% female

Narrow stem subjects (proportion)

  • 43% male
  • 20% female

Source: Department for the Economy Enrolments at UK Higher Education Institutions

Final Thoughts

The cost of getting it wrong is GREAT

Average weekly earnings (aged 16+) by NQF level, NI (2022 Q3)

  • NQF level 6+ is £657
  • NQF level 4-5 is £513
  • NQF level 3 is £409
  • NQF level 2 and below is £369
  • Employment rate and earnings increase with higher qualifications. An individual working from age 21 to 65 would expect to earn approximately £986,000 in today’s prices if they had qualifications below NQF Level 2. However, this rises to over £1.76 million for a worker with Level 6 qualifications, a 79% increase.

Source: UUEPC Labour Market Information dashboard

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