Labour Market Statistics Published Today

The labour market statistics were published today by the Northern Ireland Statistics & Research Agency.

Labour Force Survey (LFS) unemployment falls over the quarter and the year

• The latest NI seasonally adjusted and 1.4 pps over the year (from 5.3%). The annual and quarterly rate changes were not statistically significant, ie the recorded changes did not exceed the variability expected from a sample survey of this size and would, therefore, not likely reflect a real change.
• The latest NI unemployment rate (3.9%) was below the UK average of 4.4% and was the third lowest unemployment rate of the UK regions. Additionally, it was below the European Union (7.3%) rate and Republic of Ireland (6.1%) rate for November 2017.

LFS employment rate and inactivity rate improve over the quarter but worsen over the year

• There was an increase (0.6 pps) in the employment rate (68.7%) over the quarter and a 1.2 pps decrease over the year.Although these short-term changes were not significant, looking at the longer-term shows that there has been a significant increase since April-June 2013, and particularly since the low rates recorded in 2009.The current rate is similar to the rates seen since 2015.                                                                          
• The economic inactivity rate (28.4%) decreased over the quarter by 0.5 pps and increased by 2.3 pps over the year. The change in the inactivity rate was not statistically significant over the quarter but was statistically significant over the year.

NI Claimant Count (JSA only) continues to fall

• In January 2018, the seasonally adjusted number of people claiming Job Seekers Allowance (JSA) was 28,400 (3.1% of the workforce). This represents a decrease of 700 from the previous month’s revised figure.
• Universal Credit was introduced in NI in September 2017 replacing income-based JSA for new claimants. On the January claimant count reference date Universal Credit was available in four out of 35 Job Centres in NI. Provisional estimates show approximately 400 claimants of Universal Credit were claiming it principally for the reason of being unemployed.The provisional estimate of out of work Universal Credit claimants is subject to revision in the following months and has not been included in the headline claimant count total. The NI claimant count continues to be based on Job Seekers Allowance claimants only.

Confirmed redundancies decreased over the year

• There were 132 confirmed redundancies in January 2018. Over the last year to 31st January 2018 there has been a 52% decrease in the number of confirmed redundancies: from 3,599 in 2017 to 1,712.

Commentary

• The most recent results from the LFS and the claimant count show a continuation in the trend of falling unemployment which has been evident since 2013.
• Of note are the historically low unemployment rates estimated from the LFS for the second quarter running. At 3.9%, the LFS estimate for October-December is the joint lowest unemployment rate since 2008 and has only been lower on two occasions since 1992. The claimant count (JSA only) decreased over the month and the year and has more than halved in the last 5 years.
• The employment and inactivity rates both improved over the quarter but worsened when compared to the position a year ago. The resulting employment rate of 68.7% is similar to those recorded since 2015 and significantly above those recorded in 2012-13.
• At 28.4% the economic inactivity rate, whilst an improvement on last quarter’s results, is 2.3 percentage points above the rate in 2016. Although one of the highest rates recorded since 2010, the current inactivity rate is significantly below peak rates recorded in mid-2009.

Upcoming Releases

• From April 2018 the monthly Labour Market Report and Quarterly Employment Survey will be published one day earlier than previously announced (Tuesdays instead of Wednesdays). This is in line with the change in publication dates announced by the Office for National Statistics.
• On 28th February and 7th March 2018 the Annual Coal Inquiry and the Quarterly Supplement to the Labour Market Report are due to be published on the NISRA website.

Notes to editors: 

1. The Labour Market Report is a monthly overview of key labour market statistics. It includes figures from the Labour Force Survey, the claimant count (people claiming unemployment related benefits), the Quarterly Employment Survey of employers and the Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings as well as official redundancy data.
2. The NI claimant count measure of unemployment is based on people claiming Jobseeker’s Allowance (JSA) from Jobs and Benefits Office Administrative Systems. From 17 June 2015, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) replaced the claimant count based on JSA for Great Britain (GB) with an experimental claimant count based on JSA claimants and a measure of out-of-work claimants of Universal Credit (UC). For more information please refer to the Further Information section of the Labour Market Report.
3. The official measure of unemployment is the Labour Force Survey. This measure of unemployment relates to people without a job who were available for work and had either looked for work in the last four weeks or were waiting to start a job. This is the International Labour Organisation definition. Labour Force Survey estimates are subject to sampling error. This means that the exact figure is likely to be contained in a range surrounding the estimate quoted. For example, the number of unemployed persons is likely to fall within 1.0% of the quoted estimate (ie between 2.9% and 4.9%).
4. Employee jobs figures are taken from the Quarterly Employment Survey a survey of public sector organisations and private sector firms.
5. This report will be of interest to Ministers, policy makers, public bodies, the business community, banks, economic commentators, academics and the general public with an interest in the local economy.
6. This detailed statistical bulletin and other information and tables is available from the NISRA Website
7. For media enquiries, please contact DfE Press Office on 028 9052 9604. Outside office hours, please contact the Duty Press Officer via pager number 07623 974 383 and your call will be returned.
8. Feedback is welcomed and should be addressed to:

Responsible statistician:

Carly Gordon,

Economic & Labour Market Statistics Branch (ELMS),

carly.gordon@nisra.gov.uk or Tel: 028 9025 5172.

Follow ELMS on Twitter - @ELMSNISRA

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