Labour Market Statistics published today.

Date published: 13 December 2017

The labour market statistics were published today by the Northern Ireland Statistics & Research Agency

Labour Force Survey (LFS) unemployment falls over the quarter and the year

  • The latest NI seasonally adjusted and 1.7 pps over the year (from 5.7%). The quarterly and annual decreases were statistically significant and are likely to reflect real change.
  • The latest NI unemployment rate (3.9%) was below the UK average of 4.3%. Additionally, it was below the European Union (7.5%) rate and Republic of Ireland (6.1%) rate for September 2017.
  • LFS employment rate decreased over the quarter and year, economic inactivity rate increased.
  • There was a decrease (0.1 pps) in the employment rate (68.1%) over the quarter and (1.3 pps) over the year.
  • The economic inactivity rate (29.0%) increased over the quarter by 1.2 pps and increased by 2.7 pps over the year. The increase over the year was statistically significant and likely to reflect a real change. At 29.0% of the population aged 16 to 64 years, the economic inactivity rate is the highest since 2009.

NI claimant count continues to fall

  • The more recent seasonally adjusted number of people claiming unemployment related benefits stood at 29,000 (3.2% of the workforce) in November 2017, representing a decrease of 300 from the previous month’s revised figure.
  • Universal Credit was introduced in NI in September 2017 to new claimants of out-of-work benefits. The number of out-of-work Universal Credit claimants is not yet available and therefore has not been included in November’s headline claimant count total.

Confirmed redundancies decreased over the year

  • There were 191 confirmed redundancies in November 2017. Over the last year to 30th November 2017 there has been a 51% decrease in the number of confirmed redundancies: from 3,730 in the previous year to 1,835.

Quarterly Employee Jobs

  • Private sector jobs increased over the quarter (0.5% or 2,740 jobs) and year (2.1% or 11,200 jobs) to their highest level since records began in 1974. Public sector jobs decreased over the quarter and increased marginally over the year, and are now 10% below the series peak in Q3 2009.
  • The total number of employee jobs increased over the quarter (2,460 jobs) and over the year (11,600 jobs) to 752,040 in September 2017. Increases were experienced in the manufacturing, construction and services sectors over the year. The services sector accounted for the majority (71%) of growth over the year.

Services and Production Sector Output

  • Output in the services sector increased in real terms (by 1.0%) over the third quarter, with output at the highest point since Q3 2008. NI output in this sector remains close to 5% lower than the NI series high (Q4 2006). Growth over the year (2.5%) in the sector was higher than UK growth of 1.5% over the equivalent period (Q3 2016 to Q3 2017).
  • Production output in NI fell sharply over the quarter and year (to quarter 3 2017) by 3.6% and 6.5% respectively. The UK production sector reported an increase in output over the quarter (1.1%) and year (1.8%).
  • The quarterly and annual decline in production output is driven by a substantial decline in the Food, Beverages and Tobacco sub sector (18.1% fall over the quarter).
  • Within the production sector, there was however growth in the Water Supply, Sewerage, and Waste Management (inc. Recycling) sub sector (0.2% over the quarter and 2.8% over the year), and the Electricity, Gas, Steam and Air Conditioning Supply sub sector (3.3% over the quarter and 6.2% over the year).

Commentary

  • Latest labour market indicators show a continuation in the trend of falling unemployment evident since 2013. The Labour Force Survey estimate (3.9% for August-October) decreased over the quarter and the year resulting in the lowest unemployment rate since 2007. The number of people claiming unemployment related benefits decreased for the 21st month running.
  • The decreases in unemployment over the year have been coupled with an increase in economic inactivity. Following an increase of 2.7 percentage points over the year the economic inactivity rate, at 29.0%, is the highest since 2009.
  • Businesses reported an increase in employee jobs over the quarter and the year driven by an increase in private sector jobs, particularly jobs in the services sector.
  • This increase was also reflected in output in the services sector which increased in real terms (by 1.0%) over the third quarter, with output at its highest point since Q3 2008.
  • However, the production sector experienced another sharp contraction in output over the quarter mostly due to a large fall in the manufacturing sub sector of Food, Beverages and Tobacco.

Upcoming Releases

The Northern Ireland Business Register and Employment Survey (BRES) 2016 and the Broad Economy Sales and Export Statistics (BESES) are due to be published at 9.30am tomorrow, 14th December 2017, on the NISRA website.Separate briefings will issue for these releases.

Notes to editors: 

  1. The Labour Market Report is a monthly overview of key labour market statistics. It includes figures from the Labour Force Survey, the claimant count (people claiming unemployment related benefits), the Quarterly Employment Survey of employers and the Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings as well as official redundancy data.
  2. The NI claimant count measure of unemployment is based on people claiming Jobseeker’s Allowance (JSA) from Jobs and Benefits Office Administrative Systems. From 17 June 2015, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) replaced the claimant count based on JSA for Great Britain (GB) with an experimental claimant count based on JSA claimants and a measure of out-of-work claimants of Universal Credit (UC). For more information please refer to the Further Information section of the Labour Market Report (Page 27).
  3. The official measure of unemployment is the Labour Force Survey. This measure of unemployment relates to people without a job who were available for work and had either looked for work in the last four weeks or were waiting to start a job. This is the International Labour Organisation definition. Labour Force Survey estimates are subject to sampling error. This means that the exact figure is likely to be contained in a range surrounding the estimate quoted. For example, the number of unemployed persons is likely to fall within 1.0% of the quoted estimate (i.e. between 2.9% and 4.9%).
  4. Employee jobs figures are taken from the Quarterly Employment Survey a survey of public sector organisations and private sector firms.
  5. This report will be of interest to Ministers, policy makers, public bodies, the business community, banks, economic commentators, academics and the general public with an interest in the local economy.
  6. The detailed statistical bulletin and other information is available from the NISRA website
  7. For media enquiries, please contact DfE Press Office on 028 9052 9604. Outside office hours, please contact the Duty Press Officer via pager number 076623974383 and your call will be returned.

Feedback is welcomed and should be addressed to:

Responsible statistician:

Carly Gordon,

Economic & Labour Market Statistics Branch (ELMS),

carly.gordon@nisra.gov.uk or Tel: 028 9025 5172.

Follow ELMS on Twitter - @ELMSNISRA

 

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