Labour Market Statistics Published today

Date published: 15 November 2017

The labour market statistics were published today by the Northern Ireland Statistics & Research Agency.


Labour Force Survey (LFS) unemployment falls over the quarter and the year

  • The latest NI seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for the period July - September 2017 was 4.0%, the lowest in the quarterly series since April – June 2008. The unemployment rate decreased by 1.2 pps from the previous quarter and 1.6 pps over the year (from 5.6%). The quarterly and annual decreases were statistically significant and are likely to reflect real change.
  •  The latest NI unemployment rate (4.0%) was below the UK average of 4.3%. This is the first time the NI rate has been below the UK since 2013. Additionally, it was below the European Union (7.6%) rate and Republic of Ireland (6.3%) rate for August 2017.

LFS employment rate decreased over the quarter and year, economic inactivity rate increased

  • There was a decrease (1.0 pps) in the employment rate (68.1%) over the quarter and (1.7 pps) over the year.
  • The economic inactivity rate (28.9%) increased over the quarter by 2.0 pps and increased by 3.0 pps over the year (from a record low in 2016). The increases over the quarter and the year were statistically significant and are likely to reflect real change. At 28.9% of the population aged 16 to 64 years, the economic inactivity rate is the highest since 2010.

NI claimant count continues to fall

  • The more recent seasonally adjusted number of people claiming unemployment related benefits stood at 29,300 (3.2% of the workforce) in October 2017, representing a decrease of 100 from the previous month’s revised figure.
  • Universal Credit was introduced in NI in September 2017 to new claimants of out-of-work benefits. The number of out-of-work Universal Credit claimants is not yet available and therefore has not been included in October’s headline claimant count total.

Confirmed redundancies decreased over the year

  • There were 255 confirmed redundancies in October 2017. Over the last year to 31st October 2017 there has been a 41% decrease in the number of confirmed redundancies: from 3,440 in the previous year to 2,045.

Commentary

  • Latest labour market indicators show a continuation in the trend of falling unemployment evident since 2013. The Labour Force Survey estimate (4.0% for July-September) decreased over the quarter and the year resulting in the lowest unemployment rate since 2008. The number of people claiming unemployment related benefits decreased for the 20th month running.
  • Over the year the falling unemployment has been coupled with a decrease in employment and an increase in economic inactivity. While the current employment rate of 68.1% is similar to rates in 2015, the economic inactivity rate is the highest since 2010.
  • Taken together these changes suggest that recent decreases in unemployment are being offset by increasing numbers in economic inactivity rather than increasing numbers in employment.

Recent Releases

  • Regional estimates from the Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings were released on Monday 13th November. The survey estimated that Belfast Local Government District (LGD) had the highest median weekly earnings for full-time employees at £550, nearly £50 a week higher than the NI average (£501). Causeway Coast and Glens was estimated to have the lowest earnings on this measure at £385, the only LGD with average earnings below £400 a week.

Notes to editors: 

  1. The Labour Market Report is a monthly overview of key labour market statistics. It includes figures from the Labour Force Survey, the claimant count (people claiming unemployment related benefits), the Quarterly Employment Survey of employers and the Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings as well as official redundancy data.
  2. The NI claimant count measure of unemployment is based on people claiming Jobseeker’s Allowance (JSA) from Jobs and Benefits Office Administrative Systems. From 17 June 2015, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) replaced the claimant count based on JSA for Great Britain (GB) with an experimental claimant count based on JSA claimants and a measure of out-of-work claimants of Universal Credit (UC). For more information please refer to the Further Information section of the Labour Market Report (Page 28).
  3. The official measure of unemployment is the Labour Force Survey. This measure of unemployment relates to people without a job who were available for work and had either looked for work in the last four weeks or were waiting to start a job. This is the International Labour Organisation definition. Labour Force Survey estimates are subject to sampling error. This means that the exact figure is likely to be contained in a range surrounding the estimate quoted. For example, the number of unemployed persons is likely to fall within 1.0% of the quoted estimate (i.e. between 3.0% and 5.0%).
  4. Employee jobs figures are taken from the Quarterly Employment Survey a survey of public sector organisations and private sector firms.
  5. This report will be of interest to Ministers, policy makers, public bodies, the business community, banks, economic commentators, academics and the general public with an interest in the local economy.
  6. The detailed statistical bulletin and other information is available on the NISRA Website
  7. For media enquiries, please contact DfE Press Office on 028 9052 9604. Outside office hours, please contact the Duty Press Officer via pager number 07623974383 and your call will be returned.
  8. Feedback is welcomed and should be addressed to: Responsible statistician:  Andrew Mawhinney,Economic & Labour Market Statistics Branch (ELMS), andrew.mawhinney@nisra.gov.uk or Tel: 028 9052 9668.
  9. Follow ELMS on Twitter - @ELMSNISRA

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