Labour Market Statistics

Date published: 15 February 2022

The labour market statistics were published today by the Northern Ireland Statistics & Research Agency.

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Key points

Payrolled employees now higher than pre-COVID for the eighth consecutive month

  • The number of employees receiving pay through HMRC PAYE in NI in January 2022 was 774,900, an increase of 0.4 per cent over the month and 5.0 per cent over the year.  This is the highest on record and the eighth consecutive month that employee numbers have been above pre-COVID levels. 
  • Earnings from the HMRC PAYE indicated that NI employees had a median monthly pay of £1,941 in January 2022, an increase of £33 (1.7 per cent) over the month and an increase of £155 (8.7 per cent) over the year.

NI Claimant Count (Experimental Series) decreased for the eleventh consecutive month

  • In January 2022, the seasonally adjusted number of people on the claimant count was 41,200 (4.2 per cent of the workforce), a decrease of 900 (2.2 per cent) from the previous month’s revised figure.  The January claimant count is 35 per cent below the recent peak in May 2020, and 35 per cent higher than the pre-pandemic count in March 2020.

260 proposed redundancies since the beginning of 2022

  • There have been 260 proposed redundancies since the beginning of 2022 (up to 14th February).  This follows no, or low, proposed redundancies in each of the months September to December 2021.  Over the year February 2021 to January 2022, 1,930 redundancies were proposed, 82 per cent less than in the previous 12 months. 
  • NISRA, acting on behalf of the Department for the Economy, received confirmation that 20 redundancies occurred in January 2022.  Over the year from 1st February 2021 to 31st January 2022, 2,450 redundancies were confirmed, 54 per cent less than in the previous year.

Labour Force Survey headline measures

  • The latest NI seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (the proportion of economically active people aged 16 and over who were unemployed) for the period October-December 2021 was estimated from the Labour Force Survey at 2.7 per cent.  The unemployment rate decreased by 1.3 percentage points (pps) over the quarter and by 0.8pps over the year.  The quarterly change was statistically significant and is likely to reflect real change.
  • The proportion of people aged 16 to 64 in work (the employment rate) increased by 0.5pps over both the quarter and the year to 70.7 per cent.  Neither the quarterly nor annual changes were statistically significant.  Similarly, the total number of weekly hours worked in NI (27.1 million) increased by 0.9 per cent over the quarter and by 6.3 per cent over the year.
  • The economic inactivity rate (the proportion of people aged 16 to 64 who were not working and not seeking or available to work) increased over the quarter (+0.5pps) and over the year (+0.1pps) to 27.3 per cent.  Neither the quarterly nor annual changes were statistically significant.

Commentary

  • The number of payrolled employees and level of payroll earnings continue to be above the pre-pandemic levels.  Total employment (which includes self-employed) and hours worked have yet to return to pre-pandemic levels and similarly claimant count, unemployment and economic inactivity all remain above.
  • The latest HMRC payroll data showed that employee numbers were the highest on record in January and 2.9 per cent above those recorded in March 2020 pre-COVID.  A closer look at the annual increase (+5.0 per cent) in payrolled employee jobs shows that all sectors with the exception of finance and insurance reported an increase over the year.  The accommodation and food sector reported the largest percentage increase over the year (+14 per cent), where employees in this sector are just above (1 per cent) those recorded pre-pandemic.
  • Following no, or low, proposed redundancies in each of the months between September and December 2021, there were 260 proposed redundancies since the beginning of 2022 (up to 14th February).  However, this number is well below the average number of proposed redundancies in the second half of 2020 (at 1,050 per month).  The annual total of proposed collective redundancies to the end of January (1,930) is the lowest rolling twelve-month total since November 2011, while there was a 54 per cent decrease in confirmed redundancies in the most recent twelve-month period when compared to the previous year.
  • The Labour Force Survey shows a statistically significant quarterly change in the unemployment rate to October-December 2021, where the rate decreased by 1.3pps to 2.7 per cent.  Compared to the pre-pandemic levels in October-December 2019, the total number of hours worked in October-December 2021 was 7.0 per cent below, whilst the employment rate was 1.7pps below.  Both the unemployment and economic inactivity rates remain above the pre-pandemic position (0.3pps and 1.5pps above, respectively).

Notes to editors: 

1. The statistical report and associated tables are available on the NISRA website.

2. The Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency wishes to thank the participating households for taking part in the Labour Force Survey.

3. Today’s release contains updated labour market indicators from household surveys and administrative data sources.  Although the broad concepts are similar across sources, differences in reference periods, definitions and methodology exist which impact the interpretation of the statistics.  Of particular note is the ‘location’ of the furloughed in the estimates.  Those who were furloughed under the Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme (CJRS) or receiving a grant through the Self Employment Income Support Scheme (SEISS) are included in the Labour Force Survey (LFS) estimates of employment and not within the LFS unemployment estimates.  Similarly, employees on the CJRS are included in the HMRC count of employees paid through payroll, and the Quarterly Employment Survey estimate of employee jobs.  In contrast, a proportion of those receiving grants through CJRS and SEISS may be accessing Universal Credit unemployment benefits as a ‘top-up’ payment and are included in the experimental Claimant Count.  The CJRS ended on 30th September 2021, which was also the last date for making a SEISS claim.

4. ‘Over the quarter’ refer to comparisons between the latest quarterly estimates for the period October-December 2021 and the quarter preceding that (i.e. July-September 2021).  ‘Over the year’ refer to comparisons between the latest quarterly estimates for the period October-December 2021 and those of the corresponding quarter one year previously (i.e. October-December 2020).  Changes that are found to be significant in a statistical sense (i.e. where the estimated change exceeded the variability expected from a sample survey of this size and was likely to reflect real change) will be specifically highlighted.

5. Estimates relating to October-December 2021 should be compared with the estimates for July-September 2021. This provides a more robust estimate than comparing with the estimates for September-November 2021, as the October and November data are included within both estimates.

6. The official measure of unemployment is from the Labour Force Survey. This measure of unemployment relates to people without a job who were available for work and had either looked for work in the last four weeks or were waiting to start a job. This is the International Labour Organisation definition. Labour Force Survey estimates are subject to sampling error. This means that the exact figure is likely to be contained in a range surrounding the estimate quoted. For example, the unemployment rate is likely to fall within 0.6pps of the quoted estimate (ie between 2.1 per cent and 3.3 per cent).

7. The claimant count is an administrative data source derived from Jobs and Benefits Offices systems, which records the number of people claiming unemployment-related benefits.  In March 2018 the NI claimant count measure changed from one based solely on Jobseekers Allowance (JSA) to an experimental measure based on JSA claimants and out-of-work Universal Credit (UC) claimants who were claiming principally for the reason of being unemployed. Those claiming unemployment-related benefits (either UC or JSA) may be wholly unemployed and seeking work, or may be employed but with low income and/or low hours, that make them eligible for unemployment-related benefit support. Under UC a broader span of claimants became eligible for unemployment-related benefit than under the previous benefit regime.

8. The recent changes in claimant count can largely be attributed to the increase in the numbers of people becoming unemployed or having their hours reduced resulting in very low earnings below the administrative earnings threshold. There may be some persons, previously not eligible for UC due to partner earnings, now eligible as a result of work allowance increases who would now be included within the count. We are not able to identify the extent to which each group has contributed to the increase in claimant count.

9. Redundancies are provided by companies under the Employment Rights (Northern Ireland) Order 1996 (Amended 8 October 2006) whereby they are legally required to notify the Department of impending redundancies of 20 or more employees. Companies who propose fewer than 20 redundancies are not required to notify the Department, therefore the figures provided are likely to be an underestimate of total job losses, however, it is not possible to quantify the extent of the shortfall. All other things being equal we would expect more redundancies in sectors dominated by large businesses as they are the businesses that meet the 20 or more collective redundancy criteria.

10. To prevent the potential identification of individual businesses, redundancy totals relating to fewer than 3 businesses are not disclosed. The Statistical Disclosure Control Policy is available on the Redundancies background information page of the NISRA website. Where the number of businesses does not meet the threshold for release (as detailed in the Statistical Disclosure Control Policy), individual monthly totals are not published.

11. HMRC’s Pay As You Earn (PAYE) Real Time Information (RTI) system is an administrative data source. The PAYE RTI system is the system employers uses to take Income Tax and National Insurance contributions before they pay wages to employees. These data relate to employees paid by employers only, and do not include self-employment income.

12. Estimates of the number of paid employees and employee earnings from PAYE are classed as experimental statistics as they are still in their development phase. As a result the data are subject to revisions. Early estimates (flash estimates) for January 2022 are based on around 85 of information, and will be subject to revision in the next month’s release when between 98 per cent and 99 per cent of data will be available (main estimates). The size of revisions to main and flash estimates are similar for employees, while revisions to earnings flash estimates are typically larger than main estimate revisions. The HMRC PAYE covers the whole population rather than a sample of employees or companies.  Data are based on where employees live and not the location of their place of work within the UK. Data are seasonally adjusted but not adjusted for inflation.  

13. The Labour Market Report will be of interest to policy makers, public bodies, the business community, banks, economic commentators, academics, and the general public with an interest in the local economy.

14. The next Labour Market Report will be published on the NISRA website on Tuesday 15 March 2022.

15. For media enquiries contact the Department for the Economy Press Office at: pressoffice@economy-ni.gov.uk.

16. The Executive Information Service operates an out of hours service for media enquiries between 1800hrs and 0800hrs Monday to Friday and at weekends and public holidays. The duty press officer can be contacted on 028 9037 8110.

17. To keep up to date with news from the Department you can follow us on the following social media channels:

18. Feedback is welcomed and should be addressed to: Responsible statistician: Jennifer McLoughlin, Economic and Labour Market Statistics (ELMS), jennifer.mcloughlin@nisra.gov.uk or Tel: 028 905 29228.

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