Northern Ireland Composite Economic Index (NICEI)

The NICEI is an experimental quarterly measure of the performance of the Northern Ireland (NI) economy based on available official statistics.

Headline results

Latest results - published 21st July 2016:

  • The Northern Ireland Composite Economic Index (NICEI) results show that NI economic activity was estimated to have increased by 0.4% in real terms between Quarter 4 (October – December) 2015 and Quarter 1 (January – March) 2016. The index also increased by 0.7% over the year (Quarter 1 2015 to Quarter 1 2016) in real terms.
  • Over the last two years annual output, (averaged over the four quarters to Quarter 1 2016 compared to the previous four quarters) increased by 1.3%.
  • Although the measures are not produced on a fully equivalent basis, comparisons with the UK over the same period show that the NICEI grew at a slower rate (1.3%) compared to UK GDP growth (2.0%). There is also some evidence that the annual rate of growth in NI over the last year (0.7%) is slowing compared to previous quarters.
  • The NI private sector index was estimated to have grown by 0.6% over the quarter, by 1.6% over the year to Quarter 1 2016, and by 2.3% over the last four quarters compared to the previous four.
  • The Public sector jobs index decreased by 0.2% over the quarter, and is now at its lowest level since the series began in 2002. As previously reported, the index has been impacted by the Voluntary Exit Scheme (VES) implemented by the Northern Ireland Civil Service during 2015/16.
  • The NICEI is currently 3.8% above the minimum reached in Quarter 3 2012.

Current publication, press release and tables

NICEI publication and tables - 21st July 2016

Archive data

Previous NICEI publications and methodology paper

Contact details

Further information

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