Northern Ireland Composite Economic Index Quarter 4 2019 published

The Northern Ireland Composite Economic Index (NICEI) Q4 2019 was published today by the Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency (NISRA).

NICEI Q4 2023 published

The Northern Ireland Composite Economic Index (NICEI) Q4 2019 was published today by the Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency (NISRA).

The NICEI is a quarterly measure of the performance of the NI economy based on available official statistics. The NICEI combines existing published quarterly indices (ie Index of Services (IOS), Index of Production (IOP), Quarterly Construction Enquiry (QCE)), public sector employee jobs data from the Quarterly Employment Survey (QES), and unpublished agricultural output data from the Department of Agriculture, Environment and Rural Affairs (DAERA).  These indices are weighted using ONS Regional Accounts Gross Value Added (GVA) data to provide a proxy measure of total economic output in the NI economy on a quarterly basis.

Key points

NI Economic output increased over the quarter and the year

• The NICEI results indicate that NI economic activity was estimated to have increased by 0.2 per cent in real terms over the quarter to December 2019.  The index increased by 0.6 per cent over the year from Quarter 4 2018 to Quarter 4 2019.

• The increase in the NICEI over the latest quarter (0.2 per cent) was driven by an increases in the Production  sector (a positive contribution of 0.1 percentage points (pps) and the Public sector (a positive contribution of 0.1pps). This was offset by a decrease in the Construction sector (a negative contribution of 0.1 pps).

The NICEI indicates that NI economic activity grew faster than UK GDP over the quarter but slower over the year

• NI output grew by 0.2 per cent over the quarter and increased 0.6 per cent over the year to Q4 2019, whilst UK GDP remained static over the quarter and increased by 1.1 per centover the year to Q4 2019.

Decrease in Northern Ireland’s annualised rate of growth to Q4 2019

• When the trend in the index is considered over the last three years there is evidence that the rate of growth has reduced. Annualised average growth over the last four quarters to Quarter 4 2019 compared to the previous four quarters, increased by 0.7 per cent.  This was lower than the annual growth over the previous two year period (to Quarter 4 2018) which was 1.0 per cent.

NI Annual Private Sector NICEI continues to increase compared to Programme for Government baseline

• Following the publication of the NICEI for Q4 2019, the annual Private Sector NI Composite Economic Index for 2019 can now be compared against the PfG target. The NI annual private sector index has increased by 4.3 per cent in 2019 compared to the PfG baseline (2015). The annual private sector index increased by 0.5 per cent in 2019. The next annual update will be available following the NICEI publication (for Quarter 4 2020) which will be released in April 2021.

Increases in both the public and private sectors over the quarter and year

• Private sector output increased by 0.2 per cent over the quarter and over the year to December 2019. The Public sector jobs index increased by 0.5 per cent over the quarter and by 1.8 per cent over the year.

• For the Private sector, average growth for the four quarters to Quarter 4 2019 compared to the previous four quarters increased by 0.5 per cent. Whilst the Public sector (employee jobs) index increased by 1.3 per cent over the same period.

Commentary

• NI economic activity grew at a faster rate than UK GDP over the quarter but slower over the year. NI output increased by 0.2 per cent over the quarter and 0.7 per cent over the year, compared to UK GDP remaining flat over the quarter and increasing 1.1 per cent over the year. 

• Over the last two years, growth in NI output increased by 0.7 per cent, compared to UK growth of 1.4 per cent. This was a decrease on the NI growth rate compared to the two years to Q4 2018 (1.0 per cent). NI's Private sector output increased by 0.2 per cent over the quarter and over the year.

• The NICEI is currently 4.0 per cent below the maximum value recorded in Quarter 2 2007. In Quarter 4 2019, UK GDP was estimated to have been 13.5 per cent higher than its pre-economic downturn peak of Quarter 1 2008. The latest NICEI results continue to show that the UK has had a shorter downturn and a faster recovery than NI.

Notes to editors: 

1. The Northern Ireland Composite Economic Index (NICEI) is a quarterly measure of the performance of the Northern Ireland (NI) economy based on available official statistics.
2. The NICEI output measures relate to the fourth quarter (October - December) of 2019. These estimates are based on surveys of businesses and estimates of change are subject to sampling error. Figures for a quarter may be revised if more complete information subsequently becomes available.
3. The NICEI back series is calculated each quarter, typically the revisions to the NICEI are reasonably minor. The revisions this quarter were more noticeable, this was largely due to a revision in the Index of production deflators. Further information is available in the detailed statistical bulletin is available at  NISRA website.
4. This report will be of interest to Ministers, policy makers, public bodies, the business community, banks, economic commentators, academics and the general public with an interest in the local economy.
5. Further information and tables from each of the data sources are available at NISRA Economy page..
6. Feedback is welcomed and should be addressed to Responsible economist: David Leonard, Economic & Labour Market Statistics Branch (ELMS), david.leonard@nisra.gov.uk Tel: 028 9052 9385. 
7. For media enquiries, please contact DfE Press Office on 028 9052 9604. Outside office hours, please contact the Duty Press Officer on 028 9037 8110.
8. Follow NISRA on Twitter @NISRA

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