Labour Market Statistics

The labour market statistics were published today by the Northern Ireland Statistics & Research Agency.

Labour Market Statistics

The labour market statistics were published today by the Northern Ireland Statistics & Research Agency.

Key points

Payrolled employees is unchanged and monthly earnings decreased over the month

• The number of employees receiving pay through HMRC PAYE in NI in May 2023 was 788,400, unchanged over the month and a 1.7 per cent increase over the year.
• Earnings data from HMRC PAYE indicated that NI employees had a median monthly pay of £2,054 in May 2023, a decrease of £4 (0.2 per cent) over the month and an increase of £108 (5.5 per cent) over the year.

Claimant Count Rate remains relatively constant over previous year

• In May 2023, the seasonally adjusted number of people on the claimant count was 36,200 (3.7 per cent of the workforce), a decrease of 1.4 per cent from the previous month’s revised figure. The May 2023 claimant count remains 21.1 per cent higher than the pre-pandemic count in March 2020.

Number of confirmed redundancies remains below historic trend

• NISRA, acting on behalf of the Department for the Economy, received confirmation that 140 redundancies occurred in May 2023. Over the year June 2022 to May 2023, 1,200 redundancies were confirmed, 25.7 per cent less than in the previous 12 months. 
• There were 610 proposed redundancies in May 2023, taking the annual total to 2,650 (26.0 per cent more than in the previous 12 months).

Labour Force Survey employment, unemployment, and economic inactivity rates remain relatively steady

• The latest NI seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (the proportion of economically active people aged 16 and over who were unemployed) for the period February-April 2023 was estimated from the Labour Force Survey at 2.4 per cent. This was unchanged over the quarter and a decrease of 0.2pps over the year.
• The proportion of people aged 16 to 64 in work (the employment rate) increased by 0.5pps over the quarter and increased by 2.1pps over the year to 72.4 per cent.
• The total number of weekly hours worked in NI was estimated at 29.0 million hours, an increase of 4.5 per cent on the previous quarter, and an increase of 3.8 per cent on the equivalent period last year.
• The economic inactivity rate (the proportion of people aged 16 to 64 who were not working and not seeking or available to work) decreased by 0.6pps over the quarter and decreased by 2.0pps over the year to 25.8 per cent.

Quarterly Employment Survey (QES) headline measures

• Businesses reported that employee jobs increased over the quarter (0.6 per cent) and over the year (2.9 per cent) to a series high of 818,840 jobs in March 2023. The annual change was statistically significant.

Commentary

• The latest labour market release generally shows improvements over the year. Payrolled employee numbers and earnings have both increased, and employee jobs in Northern Ireland are at the highest level on record. The unemployment rate for February-April 2023 has reached parity with the pre-pandemic position, the economic inactivity rate is 0.1 percentage points (pps) below the pre-pandemic figure, the employment rate is 0.1pps above the pre-pandemic position, and hours worked are now 0.5 per cent above the pre-pandemic level.
• The latest HMRC payroll data shows that payrolled employee numbers remained unchanged over the month but increased by 1.7 per cent over the year. Payrolled earnings decreased over the month by 0.2 per cent but were 5.5 per cent higher than May 2022.
• Businesses reported, via the Quarterly Employment Survey, that employee jobs in NI increased over both the quarter and the year to 818,840 jobs in March 2023 to reach a series high. The quarterly and annual increases in employee jobs in March 2023 were largely driven by the services industry sector. Over the year to March 2023, the services and other industries sectors experienced increases while there were decreases within the manufacturing and construction sectors.
• Households reported, via the Labour Force Survey (LFS), a 2.1pps increase in the employment rate over the year to February-April 2023, to 72.4 per cent, and a decrease of 0.2pps in the unemployment rate over the year, to 2.4 per cent. The economic inactivity rate also decreased over the year to February-April 2023, by 2.0pps, to 25.8 per cent.  Caution is advised when interpreting these results however as none of the annual changes were statistically significant.  At February-April 2023, the employment rate sat 0.1pps above the pre-pandemic position recorded in November-January 2020, while the economic inactivity rate was 0.1pps below the pre-pandemic position. The unemployment rate for February-April 2023 of 2.4 per cent is equal to the pre-pandemic rate recorded in November-January 2020.
• The total number of hours worked in February-April 2023 increased by 3.8 per cent over the year and now stand at 0.5 per cent above the pre-pandemic position recorded in November-January 2020.
• There were 610 proposed redundancies reported to the Department in May 2023, the highest monthly total reported since July 2021.  This took the rolling twelve-month total of proposed redundancies to 2,650 which, although still below the long-term trend, is the highest figure reported since October 2021.
• The Department was also notified that 140 redundancies had taken place in May 2023, which brought the rolling twelve-month confirmed redundancies total to 1,200. This is the highest annual total since July 2022, although still well below the long term trend.
• Finally, over the month to May 2023, the claimant count estimate decreased, by 1.4 per cent, from the revised figure for April 2023, with the claimant count rate decreasing to 3.7 per cent. This is the fourteenth consecutive month that the claimant count rate has been within the range 3.6 per cent to 3.8 per cent.

Notes to editors: 

1. The statistical report and associated tables are available on the Labour Market Report - June 2023 page of the NISRA website.

2. The Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency wishes to thank the participating households for taking part in the Labour Force Survey.

3. ‘Over the quarter’ refer to comparisons between the latest quarterly estimates for the period February-April 2023 and the quarter preceding that (ie November-January 2023). ‘Over the year’ refer to comparisons between the latest quarterly estimates for the period February-April 2023 and those of the corresponding quarter one year previously (i.e. February-April 2022). Changes that are found to be significant in a statistical sense (i.e. where the estimated change exceeded the variability expected from a sample survey of this size and was likely to reflect real change) will be specifically highlighted.

4. Estimates relating to February-April 2023 should be compared with the estimates for November-January 2023. This provides a more robust estimate than comparing with the estimates for January-March 2023, as the February and March data are included within both estimates.

5. The official measure of unemployment is from the Labour Force Survey. This measure of unemployment relates to people without a job who were available for work and had either looked for work in the last four weeks or were waiting to start a job. This is the International Labour Organisation definition. Labour Force Survey estimates are subject to sampling error. This means that the exact figure is likely to be contained in a range surrounding the estimate quoted.  For example, the unemployment rate is likely to fall within 0.6pps of the quoted estimate (ie between 1.8 per cent and 3.0 per cent).

6. The claimant count is an administrative data source derived from Jobs and Benefits Offices systems, which records the number of people claiming unemployment-related benefits. In March 2018, the NI claimant count measure changed from one based solely on Jobseekers Allowance (JSA) to an experimental measure based on JSA claimants and out-of-work Universal Credit (UC) claimants who were claiming principally for the reason of being unemployed. Those claiming unemployment-related benefits (either UC or JSA) may be wholly unemployed and seeking work, or may be employed but with low income and/or low hours, that make them eligible for unemployment-related benefit support. Under UC a broader span of claimants became eligible for unemployment-related benefit than under the previous benefit regime.

7. Redundancies are provided by companies under the Employment Rights (Northern Ireland) Order 1996 (Amended 8 October 2006) whereby they are legally required to notify the Department of impending redundancies of 20 or more employees. Companies who propose fewer than 20 redundancies are not required to notify the Department, therefore the figures provided are likely to be an underestimate of total job losses, however, it is not possible to quantify the extent of the shortfall. All other things being equal we would expect more redundancies in sectors dominated by large businesses as they are the businesses that meet the 20 or more collective redundancy criteria.

8. To prevent the potential identification of individual businesses, redundancy totals relating to fewer than 3 businesses are not disclosed. The Statistical Disclosure Control Policy is available at the Redundancies Background Information Page of the NISRA website. Where the number of businesses does not meet the threshold for release (as detailed in the Statistical Disclosure Control Policy), individual monthly totals are not published.

9. HMRC’s Pay As You Earn (PAYE) Real Time Information (RTI) system is an administrative data source. The PAYE RTI system is the system employers use to take Income Tax and National Insurance contributions before they pay wages to employees. These data relate to employees paid by employers only, and do not include self-employment income.

10. Estimates of the number of paid employees and employee earnings from PAYE are classed as experimental statistics as they are still in their development phase. As a result, the data are subject to revisions.  Early estimates (flash estimates) for May 2023 are based on around 85 per cent of information and will be subject to revision in the next month’s release when between 98 per cent and 99 per cent of data will be available (main estimates). The size of revisions to main and flash estimates are similar for employees, while revisions to earnings flash estimates are typically larger than main estimate revisions. The HMRC PAYE covers the whole population rather than a sample of employees or companies. Data are based on where employees live and not the location of their place of work within the UK. Data are seasonally adjusted but not adjusted for inflation.  

11. The content and format of the Labour Market Report (LMR) and monthly tables changed in September 2022 to make them more user friendly and interactive, enhancing accessibility, and increasing automation in their production. As the tables have changed, a mapping document has been created showing the relationship between old and new tables. In addition, the LMR, supplementary documents and data tables are now all available on one webpage with links added to individual data source pages directing users to the most recent data.

12. The Labour Market Report will be of interest to policy makers, public bodies, the business community, banks, economic commentators, academics, and the general public with an interest in the local economy.

13. The next Labour Market Report will be published on the NISRA website on Tuesday 11 July 2023.

14. For media enquiries contact the Department for the Economy Press Office at: pressoffice@economy-ni.gov.uk.

15. To keep up to date with news from the Department for the Economy you can follow us on the following social media channels:

• Twitter – @Economy_NI
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• Instagram – economy_ni
• LinkedIn – Department for the Economy NI 

The Executive Information Service operates an out of hours service for media enquiries only between 1800hrs and 0800hrs Monday to Friday and at weekends and public holidays. The duty press officer can be contacted on 028 9037 8110.

Feedback is welcomed and should be addressed to: Responsible statistician: Mark McFetridge, Economic & Labour Market Statistics (ELMS), Mark.McFetridge@nisra.gov.uk or Tel: 028 902 55172.

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