Economic Output Statistics

The economic output statistics were published today by the Northern Ireland Statistics & Research Agency (NISRA).

Economic Output Statistics published.

Commentary

• Output in the services sector increased by 2.2% in real terms over the first quarter of 2023 and by 2.4% over the year.
• NI services output is at a series high.
• Production sector output decreased by 0.4% over the first quarter of 2023 and by 1.9% over the year.
• Retail output in NI saw an increase of 3.3% in Quarter 1 2023 and a decrease of 1.1% over the year.
• When comparing current output with the pre-Coronavirus pandemic levels seen in Quarter 4 2019, Northern Ireland production output is 3.7% above its pre-pandemic level and Northern Ireland service output is 7.4% above its pre-pandemic level. In contrast Northern Ireland Retail output remains 3.5% below its pre-pandemic level seen in Quarter 4 2019.

Services Sector Output

• The NI IOS increased by 2.2% over the quarter (January - March), by 2.4% over the year and by 1.2% on a rolling four quarters basis. The UK IOS increased 0.1% over the quarter, by 0.7% over the year and by 2.6% on a rolling four quarters basis.
• NI services output in Quarter 1 2023 is at a series high.
• NI services output is now 7.4% above the pre-Coronavirus pandemic level seen in Quarter 4 2019 while UK services output remains 1.0% below its pre-pandemic level. 
• The 2.2% quarterly increase in NI services output was driven by increases in three of the four subsectors: the Wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles; accommodation and food service sector (1.7%); the Business services and finance sector (3.0%); and the Other services sector (1.1%). There was a decrease in the Transport, storage, information and communications sector (2.9%).
• The 2.4% increase seen in NI services output over the year was driven by increases in three of the four subsectors, with increases in the Wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles; accommodation and food service sector (1.5%); the Business services and finance sector (8.7%); and the Other services sector (5.7%). The Transport, storage, information and communications sector decreased over the year (4.4%).
• The 1.2% increase seen in NI services output when the current four quarters are compared to the previous four quarters was driven by three of the four subsectors, with increases in the Business services and finance sector by 6.2%; the Other services sector by 10.6% and the Transport, storage, information & communication sector by 5.0%. The Wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles; accommodation and food service sector decreased by 2.1%.

Production Sector Output

• The NI IOP decreased by 0.4% over the quarter (January – March) and by 1.9% over the year.
• The decline in Quarter 1 2023 is the fourth consecutive quarter of decline in the revised NI IOP series.The UK IOP reported no change (0.0%) over the quarter and a decrease of 2.6% over the year.  
• The NI IOP is 3.7% above its pre-Coronavirus pandemic level seen in Quarter 4 2019, and the UK is 3.0% above its Quarter 4 2019 level.
• The quarterly decrease in NI production output of 0.4% was driven by decreases in Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply (2.7%) and Water supply, sewerage and waste management (Inc. recycling) (2.3%).This was offset by increases in Manufacturing (0.4%) and Mining and quarrying (2.5%).
• The quarterly increase in Manufacturing output (0.4%) was driven by increases in the Engineering and allied industries (0.3%), Total other manufacturing (4.5%) and the Manufacture of chemical and pharmaceutical products (6.5%) subsectors. These increases were partially offset by decreases in three of the six main subsectors: Food products, beverages and tobacco (4.6%), Basic metals and fabricated metal products (1.2%) and Manufacture of textiles, leather and related products (2.2%).
• Over the year the increase in Manufacturing (0.4%) was driven by increases in one of the six main subsectors: Engineering and allied industries (15.6%). This annual increase was partially offset by decreases in Food products, beverages and tobacco (2.0%); Total other manufacturing (4.4%); Basic metals and fabricated metal products (2.0%); Manufacture of chemical and pharmaceutical products (22.6%) and Manufacture of textiles, leather and related products (5.5%).
• Looking at the longer-term trend, when the most recent four quarters are compared to the previous four quarters, output in the NI production sector increased by 0.1%, with the UK reporting a decrease of 3.0%.

Retail Sector Output

• The retail sales sector refers to SIC 47 (Retail trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles) and is a subset of the Index of Services (IOS).
• Retail output in NI saw an increase of 3.3% in Quarter 1 2023 and a decrease of 1.1% over the year.
• GB RSI output experienced an increase of 0.6% over the quarter and a decrease of 3.6% over the year.
• NI RSI output in Quarter 1 2023 is 6.5% below the series high seen in Quarter 3 2020 and 5.0% higher than the series low (Quarter 1 2021).
• NI RSI output remains 3.5% below the pre-Coronavirus pandemic level seen in Quarter 4 2019 while GB RSI output is now 13.6% below its Quarter 4 2019 level.

Upcoming Releases

• The NI Composite Economic Index and Quarterly Construction Enquiry are scheduled for publication on 29 June 2023.
• The next Labour Market Report will be published on 11 July 2023.
• The Index of Production, Index of Services and Retail Sales Index reports for Quarter 2 2023 will be published on 16 September 2023.

Notes to editors: 

1. This report will be of interest to Ministers, policy makers, public bodies, the business community, banks, economic commentators, academics and the general public with an interest in the local economy.
2. The RSI has been released as an experimental statistic, which means that it is in a testing and development phase. NISRA will continue to review the methodology and may make changes to it in the future.
3. The detailed statistical bulletins are available at: Index of Services, Index of Production and Retail Sales Index. Further information and tables from each of the data sources are also available at these locations.
4. For media enquiries contact the Department for the Economy Press Office at pressoffice@economy-ni.gov.uk
5. The Executive Information Service operates an out of hours service for media enquiries only between 1800hrs and 0800hrs Monday to Friday and at weekends and public holidays. The duty press officer can be contacted on 028 9037 8110.
6. To keep up to date with news from the Department for the Economy you can follow us on the following social media channels:

• Twitter – @Economy_NI
• Facebook – @DeptEconomyNI
• Instagram – economy_ni
• LinkedIn – Department for the Economy NI 

7. Feedback is welcomed and should be addressed to:

Responsible statistician:

Carole-Ann McKay,
Economic & Labour Market Statistics Branch (ELMS),
Carole-ann.mckay@nisra.gov.uk or Tel: 028 9025 5119.

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